Continuing the theme of Nassim Nicholas Taleb's latest book that I'm reading, he says; “One should not mess with a system if the results are fraught with uncertainty, or, more generally, should avoid engaging in an action with a big downside if one has no idea of the outcomes.”
Now, this seems rather obvious advice from someone who studies risk and has implications for the Brexit situation; however, Taleb is, perversely, a supporter of Brexit. It should be said though, that his support for Brexit is not so much that he believes Brexit is a good idea, but that he's convinced the EU will ultimately fail because it has become too intrusive - but doesn't all government fall into that trap?
The wide disparity in economic forecasts proves that economies are extremely complex systems. Forecasts, however imperfect though, are a better guide to action than pure hope. While an economic forecast may be legitimately doubted (it's analogous to weather forecasting - the further one goes out, the less reliable it becomes), the link between price and demand is as close to a fact as you can get and a tariff on something that was tariff-free is a price rise – this is an indisputable fact - and a price rise will reduce demand.
That said, a forecast predicated on trading relationships that do not yet exist (and may never exist) has no more validity than an astrological prediction.
Taking the spark plugs out of a complex system like a car will not produce a faster car, or even a car that behaves like a car. The sensible approach is to secure another set of spark plugs before you remove the originals.
When the UK was outvoted in only 2% of cases, when the government allowed fishermen to sell their quotas abroad, when we’re already selling to the rest of the world, when the cost of membership of the EU is between 1/12th and 1/29th of what we stand to lose in GDP by leaving, when EU accounts have indeed been signed off by auditors, when we don’t send £350m a week to Brussels, when the UK government has as many unelected roles as the EU, when the UK won't be made to pay for future bail-outs, when Turkey stands no chance of joining the EU, when the UK would have a veto on an EU Army, for the average Brexiteer, no matter how much they protest otherwise, the issue was only ever about immigration - currently a thorny issue for Amber Rudd and Theresa May.
While this is a legitimate concern, it's ironic when fully 50% of immigrants are not even from the EU and demonstrates that any problem is a direct result of a failure of successive governments to implement the rules already available to them.
When Brexiteers complain about immigrants blocking access to the NHS, schools and housing - which is totally untrue if, one bothers to look into the facts - it's ironic that we can now no longer recruit NHS doctors and nurses from abroad, leading to an acute shortage of medical staff. The Brexit solution to what was only ever a problem within the confines of Brexiteers' heads has turned the perceived problem into an actual and very real problem that's killing the patient.
Now, this seems rather obvious advice from someone who studies risk and has implications for the Brexit situation; however, Taleb is, perversely, a supporter of Brexit. It should be said though, that his support for Brexit is not so much that he believes Brexit is a good idea, but that he's convinced the EU will ultimately fail because it has become too intrusive - but doesn't all government fall into that trap?
The wide disparity in economic forecasts proves that economies are extremely complex systems. Forecasts, however imperfect though, are a better guide to action than pure hope. While an economic forecast may be legitimately doubted (it's analogous to weather forecasting - the further one goes out, the less reliable it becomes), the link between price and demand is as close to a fact as you can get and a tariff on something that was tariff-free is a price rise – this is an indisputable fact - and a price rise will reduce demand.
That said, a forecast predicated on trading relationships that do not yet exist (and may never exist) has no more validity than an astrological prediction.
Taking the spark plugs out of a complex system like a car will not produce a faster car, or even a car that behaves like a car. The sensible approach is to secure another set of spark plugs before you remove the originals.
When the UK was outvoted in only 2% of cases, when the government allowed fishermen to sell their quotas abroad, when we’re already selling to the rest of the world, when the cost of membership of the EU is between 1/12th and 1/29th of what we stand to lose in GDP by leaving, when EU accounts have indeed been signed off by auditors, when we don’t send £350m a week to Brussels, when the UK government has as many unelected roles as the EU, when the UK won't be made to pay for future bail-outs, when Turkey stands no chance of joining the EU, when the UK would have a veto on an EU Army, for the average Brexiteer, no matter how much they protest otherwise, the issue was only ever about immigration - currently a thorny issue for Amber Rudd and Theresa May.
While this is a legitimate concern, it's ironic when fully 50% of immigrants are not even from the EU and demonstrates that any problem is a direct result of a failure of successive governments to implement the rules already available to them.
When Brexiteers complain about immigrants blocking access to the NHS, schools and housing - which is totally untrue if, one bothers to look into the facts - it's ironic that we can now no longer recruit NHS doctors and nurses from abroad, leading to an acute shortage of medical staff. The Brexit solution to what was only ever a problem within the confines of Brexiteers' heads has turned the perceived problem into an actual and very real problem that's killing the patient.
1 comment:
Indeed, you are probably right. We are heading for the greater of two evils it would seem. Happy days to come
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