Class Warfare

In these days of social mobility through education, your class is not determined by how much you earn, but what you spend your earnings on.

Pot, Kettle, Black

Trump attacks a judge several times over the weekend and on Wednesday said federal judges opposed to the travel ban were acting politically. He then makes an appointment to the Supreme Court based on nothing but political considerations.

Pot, kettle, black?

You Are Remoaning

Had an alert on my mobile; thought it said; "You are Remoaning," turned out it said; "You are Roaming."

Went to see a prospect yesterday that is involved in LNG transportation. The illumination on the foyer is a work of art - it's designed to look like some massive, hydrocarbon, molecular chain.

Strange Email Flights

Overheard on Facebook Messenger:

Hay: "You watching the BBC News?"

Chairman: "No - can't get it here. Watching National Geographic channel."

Hay: "BBC story about East Lancs Accident and Emergency Dept."

Chairman: "Riveting! I'd rather watch National Geographic. Story about Atlantis possibly having been Morecambe."

What with email hacks and people's private thoughts being blasted all over the media, I would suggest that celebs go back to writing letters.

Got to chapter 8 in "It Can't Happen Here." Found this bit; Trump seems to be using article 15 of Buzz Windrip's manifesto as a manual:

Used the BA App yesterday for my flight to Athens and, for the first time, I used the mobile phone boarding pass - with great trepidation, I may add. What if your phone decides to go tits-up, or runs out of battery? You'd be stuffed!

Saw Dr Strange (the film) on the plane - total load of twaddle. Cumberbatch must have been paid a fortune to star in it, as I don't think it will do his credibility much good.

Not on The Chairman's list of recommended films.

Speed Vaccines

I wonder whether all these anti-vaccine movement people have their pets inoculated?

It doesn't bode well when Trump castigates both the media (who are not snow-white anyway) and the judiciary - especially the latter, who merely uphold the law of the land. Here's a couple of pertinent quotes from Sinclair Lewis' It Can't Happen Here:

“I know the Press only too well. Almost all editors hide away in spider-dens, men without thought of Family or Public Interest or the humble delights of jaunts out-of-doors, plotting how they can put over their lies, and advance their own positions and fill their greedy pocketbooks by calumniating Statesmen who have given their all for the common good and who are vulnerable because they stand out in the fierce Light that beats around the Throne.”

“The Executive has got to have a freer hand and be able to move quick in an emergency, and not be tied down by a lot of dumb shyster-lawyer congressmen taking months to shoot off their mouths in debates.”

A sure road to a totalitarian state. I'm only on page 37 (I'm saving it for the flight to Athens later this morning) and already the similarities with the Trump administration are startling. I wonder when Trump will inaugurate the Minute Men?

In the book there's a bit about an evangelical preacher who uses the (then) new medium of radio to gain a massive, radical congregation, much in the same manner that Trump is using Twitter.

Mercedes has done it again!

At £143k, I guess I'll just wait till they come down in price as 2nd hand objects of desire. Might buy a low mileage one when they get to about £5k on the 2nd hand market which, if the 500SL is anything to go by, will be when I'm 82.

Have I Become a Toe Jam Brexiteer?

Overheard watching the England v France 6 Nations match:

Chairman (having heard repeated reference to toe jam): "So what's this toe jam business?"

No.2 Son: "Toe jam?"

Chairman: "Well, obviously I know what toe jam is, but what's the reference to rugby? Is it a new manoeuvre? Kept hearing it during the match."

No.2 Son: "Do you mean Itoje, the England player?"

Chairman: "Do I?"

Hay: "It's the name of a player, you daft bugger."

Chairman: "Sounded like Toe Jam to me."

Why wasn't Dallaglio playing, or Guscott, or Wilkinson, or Austin Healey? Can't recognise any of these whippersnappers.

I think I may have become a Brexiteer, but not through any argument I've heard put forward by the Brexit camp or even the government. I'm more than willing to change my stance, providing it's based on logic and not just wild speculation, wishful thinking, not taking into account our low productivity or unions, ignoring the fact we lost the Empire or the facile non-strategy of saying; "Let's all pull together and hope for the best."

It's not based on the traditional Brexiteer fallacy of 'because we buy more from them, then they need us more than we need them', which, if you have any basic understand of percentages and their effects, is just laughable and shows them up as pitchfork wielding rustics without the benefit of a GCSE in maths. Nor is it based on deceitful miracles suggesting we live on a golden highway to Utopia, rather than the UK - with all its warts.

Let's take a look at some figures:

Cost of EU membership = £8.5bn

Exports to the EU           = £220bn

That means an effective export tariff of 3.86%; however, that's currently paid by the government (i.e. by you and me in taxes) and not directly by the exporter.

The WTO tariff on our current level of exports to the EU (weighted by segment) would be 2.4%, which is lower that 3.86% currently being paid indirectly; however, that will shift from taxation to the export supply chain, making exports more expensive for the buyer and putting the UK exporter at a competitive disadvantage in Europe.

But, when looking at the import side, imports account for £510bn and will attract a (once again weighted) tariff of 2.53%, resulting in a gain to government coffers of £12.9bn. If that were used to subsidise the WTO export tariffs, then there could be an overall benefit from exports staying the same price, while imports would become more expensive and less competitive, thus boosting domestic consumption and helping the balance of payments. Subsidies under WTO are accepted, but can be actionable, meaning countermeasures could be taken; however, there are ways of manipulating subsidies via loans and all manner of skulduggery (fiddling with VAT, perhaps).

The beauty of this is that exporters wouldn't need to find other markets to replace lost business with the EU, which is easier said than done, although the majority of Brexiteers seem ignorant of this. Also, there will still be enough left over from the import dues to perhaps give substantial tax breaks to start-ups, thus encouraging innovation and investment, rather than focusing solely on tax breaks for mega corporations.

It all boils down to what else we get for the £8.5bn and whether the loss of that outweighs the potential economic advantage outlined above (e.g. holding the government to environmental regulation, etc.). Undoubtedly there would be an increased drag on trade due to the customs barriers. It might not be as simple as outlined - akin to me believing wine being part of my 5 a day as it's made from grapes. Certainly we could regulate the free movement issue that seems to be the sole concern of Brexiteers.

The old Adam Smith dictum of unrestricted free trade is no longer a fixed paradigm (for the benefit of the average Brexiteer, he plays for Wolverhampton Wanderers) and, if your balance of payments is shot to hell and gone (as ours is), careful use of tariffs can be a way of getting things back into kilter, providing there's a strategy for export growth. You can't simply keep buying from abroad and not sell anything near that amount back to Johnny Foreigner yourself - that applies whether we're in or we're out of the EU.

Of course, the above strategy works only because of the huge deficit with our largest trading partner. Once (and if) that disappears, a new strategy will have to be formulated.

Please feel free to criticise the above while I'm away (flying to Greece tomorrow for the week). Given I've not heard this put forward by Brexiteers makes me suspicious that there's a flaw in the logic and I'm talking out of my backside (I'm no expert...). Subsidies are frowned upon (especially agricultural subsidies) due to them encouraging inefficiency, yet that doesn't seem to stop other nations effecting them - the CAP, for example, and Chinese subsidies on steel, and China has been a member of the WTO since 2001.

Then the other issue to consider is whether the government would implement such a plan, even if feasible, or just bumble along without a clue. It's not an argument for leaving, but a way of making leaving possibly work without the devastating impact on trade, so I guess I'm still a Remoaner.

Difficult 2nd Powerhouse Air Ram

I've plateaued at 85kg, down from 89kg just after Christmas. I've hit what Hay calls my difficult 2nd album phase in my effort to lose some plumage. I'm either going to have to cut back a bit on the cheese, or convince myself that 85kg is the perfect weight for a 5' 11½" 61 year-old. Onwards and downwards...

Hay has borrowed the latest G-Tech Air Ram to see how it compares to the older one. While she was out shopping yesterday I thought I'd vacuum under my desk, but no matter what buttons I pressed I simply couldn't get the handle to tilt. I managed to almost disassemble the bloody thing and even had the entire handle off, but could I get the handle to tilt - could I hell.

I queried her indoors when she got home and apparently, contrary to all logic, you just force it with more pressure than you'd deem acceptable.

The Northern Powerhouse. Seems it's another one of those wishlist things and doesn't seem to be materialising. If the government can't create a Northern Powerhouse within the confines of the UK, what chance is there of making Brexit a success within a global context?

Lost Wax Method

Overheard while settling down to watch TV:

Hay: "Have you seen the state of your Father Jack chair?"

Overheard watching a documentary about 1930s poverty:

Narrator: "Sometimes, 60 people would share a single toilet."

Hay: "You'd be used too that, being a Northerner."

My God - I put a few pictures of some ships on my blog and the page hits go through the roof! What does that say the majority of my friends are?

Not at all impressed with IKEA candles this year. They just burn down in the middle, wasting half of the wax.

Waste of money.

My local MP, Luke Hall, was in the remain camp during the referendum, but the area as a whole voted for Brexit. Naturally, he reflected the wishes of the majority of his constituents and voted with the government, and I respect that. I equally respect those MPs who voted with their constituents. People calling for their lynching and threatening them obviously are not fans of democracy.

Of Ships and Shoes.... and Brexit

Time for a bit of nostalgia. I thought I'd show a small selection of the vessels I sailed in during my seagoing career, from 1971 through to the early 90s, starting with my first ship, the Onitsha, through to my last vessel, the container ship, Tokyo Bay.

Onitsha

Aureol 

Adrastus 

Glenogle 

Phemius 

Tokyo Bay

They got better as time went by, although they lost some of the soul of the earlier ships.

I don't envy the MPs having to vote on Brexit. The Brexit camp keep saying that if they don't vote their way then they won't have a job at the next election (a hollow threat when half the country is for remaining). I was surprised though that the vote wasn't more reflective of the referendum split. However, if it all goes tits-up (as it will, as I've not heard a single valid economic argument for leaving and all the Brexit camp talk banging on about is free movement), then the MPs will still get the blame for the fallout, as the fickle electorate is never willing to take the blame for the consequences of their actions. The MPs are damned if they do and damned if they don't.

Hipster Phones

Overheard watching TV:

Hay: "What's the name Molly short for?"

Chairman: "Molybdenum?"

No.2 Son has broken his phone - irretrievably. As an interim measure, until he can afford a new one, Hay has lent him her Hipster phone.

In fact, I'd go so far as to say it's positively steampunk.

I think I've found out what's causing my phone to bootloop. I removed Dashlane and had no problem for a couple of days; reinstalled it and the problem returned, although less frequently than previously.