Five terrorists with bombs heading for an American airbase.
Perhaps.
But indulge me in a thought experiment.
Take RAF Fairford out of the equation.
Three white vans on a country road in the middle of the night. Hooded or masked men. Some apparently running into fields when disturbed. Farms nearby. Fishing lakes everywhere. Suspected explosives.
Around here, that screams rural crime.
And rural crime is rampant. Agricultural machinery, plant and vehicles are valuable and relatively easy to move. Only this month an operation targeting organised rural crime across Gloucestershire and Herefordshire recovered more than £300,000-worth of suspected stolen machinery, vehicles and equipment.
Then there are the lakes. Whelford sits in the Cotswold Water Park, surrounded by them. Explosives and fishing lakes inevitably made me wonder about illegal fishing. Perhaps completely wrongly, but it was another perfectly mundane possibility.
Then put RAF Fairford back into the picture.
Suddenly everything changes.
Suspected explosives have been discovered close to an American airbase being used during a conflict involving Iran. The police would have been negligent not to assume the worst. Counter Terrorism Policing became involved, bomb-disposal teams arrived, homes were evacuated and five men were arrested on suspicion of preparing a terrorist act.
Quite right too.
Unfortunately, while the police were investigating, others had already solved it.
Nigel Farage announced that he had been warning for months about Iranian agents arriving in Britain in small boats. Robert Jenrick also drew a connection with small-boat arrivals, while Richard Tice demanded to know the suspects' identities, arrival times, provenance and residence status.
Then Counter Terrorism Policing supplied one rather awkward fact.
All five are British nationals, aged between 23 and 25, living in London.
Perhaps there is an Iranian connection. The police are investigating precisely that possibility.
And yes, I'm speculating too. That's why I called it a thought experiment rather than a press conference.
I'm not claiming to know where the breadcrumbs lead. I'm asking whether there might be another trail worth following.
Which brings me to the breadcrumb that bothers me rather more.
All five have now been released on police bail.
They haven't been cleared. The investigation continues and terrorism may ultimately prove to be exactly what this was.
But five men arrested close to an American airbase after suspected explosive devices were discovered are no longer in custody.
That makes me considerably less certain about the story we started with.
And there is a fascinating line in Counter Terrorism Policing's own statement. Assistant Commissioner Laurence Taylor pointed out that threats can sometimes first appear as small-scale criminal activity committed by people whose primary motivation is simply making money. Police are keeping an open mind and considering the incident from every possible angle.
So am I.
Perhaps Fairford really was their target and the evidence will eventually demonstrate it.
Or perhaps these men were up to something completely different and had the spectacular misfortune to be caught behaving suspiciously, with suspected explosives, next door to one of the most sensitive military installations in Britain - an installation they simply weren't even aware exists.
Imagine setting out to nick a tractor or illegally stun a few carp and discovering by breakfast that you're suspected of working for Iran and plotting to attack the United States Air Force.
Perhaps the evidence will eventually lead straight back to RAF Fairford. Until then, there's one question worth keeping in mind.
What if Fairford wasn't the target at all?










