The Europe of Kant

I'm currently reading 'World Order' by Henry Kissenger, a proponent of Realpolitik, which is defined as politics or diplomacy based primarily on considerations of given circumstances and factors, rather than explicit ideological notions or moral and ethical premises. In other words, pragmatism.

It's a history of world order, or international relations for the prevention of war, going through (as far as Europe is concerned) the Westphalian System, the Concert of Europe, etc, ending with the EU. I was surprised to discover that the philosopher, Immanuel Kant, was one of the first proponents of a federal Europe to prevent nationalism, which he saw as the prime cause of war.

The answer, Kant held, was a voluntary federation of republics pledged to non-hostility and transparent domestic and international conduct. Their citizens would cultivate peace because, unlike despotic rulers, when considering hostilities, they would he deliberating about “calling down on themselves all the miseries of war.” Over time the attractions of this compact would become apparent, opening the way toward its gradual expansion into a peaceful world order. It was nature’s purpose that humanity eventually reason its way toward “a system of united power, hence a cosmopolitan system of general political security” and “a perfect civil union of mankind.”

Deck Chairs on the Titanic

Why does the Tory party think removing Mrs May will actually achieve anything positive? I'm totally  mystified, as it won't change the numbers in Parliament. If one of the Brexit supporting elite gets the position it can only make the situation worse. The only way to break the deadlock is a 2nd referendum and even then only if there's a substantial majority either way. 

Yet another narrow win by either side still won't put the matter to bed for good. It was pure insanity on the part of Cameron to not insist on a supermajority the first time around. The whole point of a supermajority is to stop argument dead in its tracks.

No Deal

It would seem Brexiteers are engaging in a spot of revisionism about the Leave vote; they seem to want to believe that Leave meant no deal and that's what they voted for in 2016, when nothing could be further from the truth.

The term 'No Deal' was invented by Theresa May when she was PM and she said; "No Deal is better than a bad deal." Before the 2016 referendum the promise from the Vote Leave campaign was a wide-ranging deal that would give us the all the benefits without the cost.

In the run-up to the referendum, Daniel Hannan said; “Absolutely nobody is talking about threatening our place in the single market." Owen Patterson said; “Only a madman would actually leave the market.” David Davis said; “Within minutes of a vote for Brexit the CEO’s of Mercedes, BMW, VW and Audi will be knocking down Chancellor Merkel’s door, demanding that there be no barriers to German access to the British market.” Fast forward to 2017 and we were told by Liam Fox that a trade deal with the EU 'would be the easiest is human history". There is no doubt that Brexiteers were promised all the benefits without the cost and that was the basis of the Leave campaign.

It now transpires that a deal of the nature envisioned and promised is impossible due to Mrs May's red lines not being matched to the red lines that form the basis of the very existence of the EU.

Those who now maintain they voted for no deal in 2016 are mistaken - Leave was on the specific basis of an FTA with the EU. This is the FTA Mrs May has been negotiating for nearly 3 years and which the ERG and their ilk don't want. Unsurprisingly, the speculators and disaster capitalists who comprise the ERG want the most damaging Leave option for the obvious reason they can profiteer from it.

The FSB Revolution

Getting a tad worried about the chaps who have rented our cabins for the last 3 years...

Spotted this on the door of one of the cabins. Doesn't look like a Russian number to me, but it could be a local UK cell...

Talking of Russia, I was thinking about the difference between a civil war and a revolution and couldn't distinguish between the two, so I did a bit of Googling.

One analysis suggested that ‘Our preconceptions about the two forms of [violence] strive to keep them apart ... Civil wars are destructive; revolutions are progressive. Civil wars are sterile; revolutions are fertile with innovation and transformative possibilities.'

This seems to agree with most definitions I can find - civil wars are generally fought by opposing factions for control without any major change to the constitution, whereas revolutions generally lead to a radically new form of government.

I was surprised to discover that since 1989, over 95% of conflicts are civil wars or revolutions, as opposed to wars between sovereign states.

Amazon Conspiracy Theory Walk

Went for a walk from Wotton-under-Edge to Newark Park and back yesterday with our friends, Simon and Ellie, stopping off for some coffee at Newark Park.

I traced our route using Plot-a-Route, which is quite handy for planning a walk.

While we were walking we were discussing conspiracy theories (antivaxxers in particular) and thought it might be fun to start one and see how fast it spread. Being ethical, we wanted a conspiracy theory that was pretty harmless, but couldn't really come up with anything concrete.

Conspiracy theories appear to stem, to a large extent, from epistemic (a way to make sense of chaos and random events), existential (the pursuit of safety, security, and empowerment), and social motives (a desire for belonging to a group with a shared belief system). They contain a number of key elements.

• a pattern, 
• deliberate action by a coalition working in conjunction, 
• an element of harmful threat, and 
• an element of secrecy. 

They're associated with ideological belief systems that promote hostility toward different groups and are empirically related with populism, political extremism and religious fundamentalism. Large numbers of ordinary citizens believe in a consistent set of conspiracy theories with common themes related to health and safety and politics.

We came to the conclusion that if our invented conspiracy theory did take off and we exposed it as invented, the nature of conspiracy theorists would result in the exposure not being believed anyway.

While out I was expecting an Amazon delivery of some books. The house is plastered with signs telling anyone with a delivery to put it in the new porch.

What did the delivery person do? They left the parcel in the shed with a note on the very door where the instruction was...

I feel a conspiracy theory coming up about Amazon delivery people...

Game of Brexit

The Tory Party (whoever that actually is) calls for unity within the party while the top brass are simultaneously stabbing each other in the back. You couldn't make it up. It's Game of Thrones.

I see House Johnson has been caught telling porkies once more.

Warren Buffet has a business maxim; be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. The surplus of fear over Brexit in the UK these days makes it an ideal shopping place for Buffett.

We were watching Miriam Margoyles in Miriam's Dead Good Adventure, where she explores our relationship with death. I adore Miriam - she should be Prime Minister. In one part of the programme she was looking at people making their own coffins. She joined in and said that despite being atheist, she identified as Jewish. I find it strange that she should say this - it's like me saying I'm atheist but identify as Christian, which is a nonsense. It would seem there's more to being Jewish than just the religious aspect - it's cultural.

DABbling

I'm trying to find a DAB radio with a CD player that can drive external speakers, and it's like trying to mine gold.

Plenty of DAB radios on the market - they look hideously retro, by the way - but it's almost impossible to find one at a reasonable price that can connect to external speakers. The specs on these things show the bare minimum.

Why do the damned things have to be made of wood?

Bought one the other day on Amazon and had to send it back. Not enough power to drive external speakers. It's to replace a Phillips unit that's 9 years old, does the job adequately in terms of speaker connections, but has become somewhat unreliable. 

Any suggestions welcome.

Routed

Conservatives and Ukip routed with Labour not faring at all well at the local elections - who'd have thought it possible?

Anyone with a brain, that's who. Can't wait for the final results and what the response will be. I'm still forecasting a 2nd referendum, as I have been doing for the last 2 years, and still believe May is playing the long game and biding her time till the polls show a near as dammit supermajority for Reman. Any narrow win for Remain would still not settle the question, so it has to be a convincing win.

Change

Whereas I might carry a new banknotes on me occasionally, I rarely carry loose change. For one thing, it has a habit of falling out of my pockets, as modern pockets are not as deep as they once were.

The people who suffer from this, in my estimation, are window cleaners and barbers, although this has been addressed by myself and my barber. 

My window cleaner has charged £15 for the last 6 years and I used to pay him in cash, ensuring I had £15 in notes somewhere in the house at all times. If he were to increase his fee to £16, I'd have a problem sourcing the extra change, and he knows that, which is probably why he has been reluctant to increase his prices. Once I started working away from home, and given he only calls once a month, I started to do a bank transfer, which does allow me to give him sums of money not divisible by 5, but he hasn't twigged yet. Perhaps he's waiting to increase the fee to £20.

My barber has always charged £10, and I noticed every time I visited that customers kept saying; "I don't  have any extra change for the tip." A tenner is easy - £11 is difficult if you only have notes. Yes, you can proffer £15, but the barber himself generally doesn't have change either. The barber solved this by recently facilitating card payments, but he has to pay a fee to obtain this facility...

Mobile Recharging

A friend who lives and works in Dubai has alerted to me a new App and service in the region. Need to fuel your car or boat? Use this App and someone comes along and fills your car or boat, wherever you happen to be.

I wonder whether this would be an application for recharging electric vehicles - now that would be useful in certain circumstances.