Thursday 30 June 2022

Recession vs Inflation

Recession and inflation - opposite ends of the same spectrum.


Recession leads to cuts in demand, which in turn means job losses. Inflation, however, produces an increase in demand and an overheated economy which, eventually leads to very high prices which can preclude a country from export markets, unless the currency falters on the international currency markets and the currency is depressed, which is the usual outcome. However, wages constantly chase high prices, which in itself can lead to job losses and a cooling of the economy.

we are currently, and curiously, facing both inflation and a recession at the same time, which seems a paradox. The technical name for this is stagflation, which poses serious problems for policy makers.

The constant refrain from our government during the current inflationary spiral is pay restraint, but we don't hear a single word on price restraint, so we know where the government's allegiance lies. Their desire to get everyone back into offices, despite many jobs being eminently capable of being performed from home, adds to this theory and it's rather hypocritical of them to castigate the rail workers for not updating their working practices when they simultaneously want large swathes of the population to engage in historic working practices without need.  Again we see them on the side of property owning donors; not even that of the business owners, who primarily rent office property and make a saving from having staff work from home.


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