NATO Replacement

So, the big question. With NATO increasingly strained by political infighting and the looming possibility of American disengagement, what happens if the USA throws its toys out of the pram and leaves NATO? If America storms off from NATO, should Europe crack on and form a new alliance with Ukraine? In short – yes. In fact, it’d be madness not to.

Ukraine isn’t just a plucky underdog. It’s now one of the most battle-hardened militaries in the world. They’ve spent years fighting a proper war against Russia, not just playing war games. They know how to counter drones, jam signals, and hold trenches under constant shelling. That’s more than most NATO countries can claim, achieved with a mishmash of Western kit, Soviet leftovers, and sheer ingenuity. Who else in Europe has that kind of experience?

Let’s face it. If the US pulls out, Europe can't rely on the fantasy that Russia will suddenly play nice. Putin would see an open goal for territorial expansion and political destabilisation. The Baltics would start sweating, Poland would be loading the guns, and Germany would be tutting about "diplomatic solutions" while doing nothing useful. But plug Ukraine into a European-led alliance and the whole picture changes.

Ukraine's geography alone is a strategic goldmine. It pushes the defensive line hundreds of miles east, turning Poland and Romania from frontline states into logistical hubs. Russia would have to think twice before stirring trouble, knowing they'd face experienced Ukrainian troops backed by European firepower. And it’s not like Europe is defenceless without the Yanks. Between the UK, France, Germany, and the Nordics, there’s enough military clout to hold the line – if they actually get their act together.

Of course, the usual hand-wringers will moan about the cost. Defence budgets would need to rise, yes, but what’s the alternative? Sitting around, hoping Russia stops at Ukraine? We’ve seen how that story goes. And economically, investing in European defence industries, especially alongside Ukraine’s rapidly expanding military production, would create jobs and drive technological advances.

The real gap is nuclear deterrence. Without the USA's arsenal, it's down to the UK and France, whose nuclear stockpiles are significantly smaller and lack the global reach of American systems. The US maintains a triad of land-based missiles, strategic bombers, and submarine-launched warheads, while the UK and France primarily rely on their submarine fleets. This makes their deterrent credible but far less imposing, especially when facing a Russia that's still heavily armed and more than willing to rattle its nuclear sabre. And even the UK's Trident system, often touted as an independent deterrent, is heavily reliant on American technology, targeting systems, and maintenance. Without continued US cooperation, its effectiveness would be seriously compromised. Still, pair that with a strong conventional force and you’ve got a credible deterrent. Russia isn't stupid. It picks fights it thinks it can win, not ones that guarantee a bloody nose.

Then there's the Trump factor. If he’s back in the White House and playing silly buggers with NATO, Europe’s going to feel the strain. The gaps would show up in logistics, intelligence sharing, and rapid response capabilities – all areas where the US currently leads. Plugging those gaps means Europe stepping up with better satellite coverage, joint command structures, and more airlift capacity. The EU’s Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) could form the backbone, but only with serious funding and political will. And let’s be honest – Trump’s America already seems to be drifting towards client-state status, like a Russian oblast in waiting. If that’s the direction the US is heading, Europe can’t afford to wait around hoping for a change of heart.

And let’s not pretend Russia wouldn’t kick up a fuss. Putin would scream about "provocation" while his trolls flood the internet with doom-mongering. But he’d also know that facing Ukraine plus Europe is a far riskier gamble than just Ukraine alone. Better for him to stick to destabilising Africa and bribing Western politicians than risk another debacle like his stalled invasion.

In the end, a new alliance wouldn’t just be about defending Ukraine. It’d be about Europe finally growing up and looking after itself, rather than hiding behind American coattails. If the US does leave NATO, the choice is stark – build something new and strong with Ukraine at its heart, or sit back and watch Russia carve up the continent piece by piece.

Europe must decide whether it wants to be a player or just the pitch.