Confidence Trick

"Consumer confidence" and "business confidence"—those mysterious, ethereal forces that apparently dictate the fate of economies, governments, and entire industries. You'd think they were some arcane economic law, like supply and demand, rather than a glorified exercise in vibes. But no, we are told to treat these measures of confidence as gospel, despite them being little more than a mixture of spin, manipulation, and outright flimflam.

Take business confidence. If there's one thing the private sector excels at, it’s playing the poor, beleaguered victim whenever it wants a handout. Every budget season, every regulatory review, every tax discussion, out come the corporate violins. "We’re struggling, we’re suffering, our industry is on the brink!" they wail, while raking in record profits, handing out CEO bonuses, and expanding operations overseas. The message is clear: "Give us tax breaks, roll back regulation, maybe throw in a state subsidy while you’re at it—or the jobs get it."

But the moment investors are in the room? The tune changes. "We’re lean, we’re innovative, we’re poised for growth!" Shareholders want to hear confidence, not crisis. Staff, on the other hand, get the doom-and-gloom version when pay rises are on the table—"Times are tough, we all need to tighten our belts"—even as executive compensation skyrockets. It’s all just strategic pessimism, deployed as needed.

Consumer confidence isn’t much better. It’s an economic barometer built on media-driven hysteria. Tell people the economy is doomed, and they’ll stop spending. Then, surprise surprise, demand falls, and the economy actually does start to slow. A self-fulfilling prophecy. Meanwhile, governments and central banks swoop in, citing "low confidence" as justification for whatever policy they were planning anyway - interest rate cuts, spending hikes, tax breaks for their mates in the boardroom. Confidence doesn’t measure economic reality; it manufactures it.

The truth is, confidence is little more than a con game. Businesses manipulate it to secure handouts, politicians use it to justify policies, and the media fuels the cycle with endless doom-mongering or irrational exuberance, depending on the agenda of the day. Yet we still pretend it’s a meaningful, objective economic measure, rather than a glorified mood ring for capitalism.

So next time you hear about "waning business confidence" or "a drop in consumer sentiment," ask yourself: is this actually happening, or is someone simply trying to pull a fast one? Because more often than not, it’s just another case of economic smoke and mirrors, designed to keep the public jittery and the powerful in pocket.