Labour Strategy

There’s a whiff of something in the air – and no, it’s not Farage’s aftershave. It’s the scent of a political era ending, and the faint but deliberate crackle of something new taking shape.

The Conservative Party – the most ruthlessly effective, shape-shifting machine in modern democracy – is finally crumbling under its own contradictions. Its long success wasn’t built on ideas or decency, but on a few cold, brutal truths:

• Leaders are expendable. Thatcher, May, Truss – dumped the moment they became inconvenient.
• Ideology is a costume. From Macmillan to Johnson, consistency was always secondary to power.
• Appeal to comfort, not fairness. A house, a pension, someone to blame.
• Command and control. Tight messaging, brutal whipping, no freelancing.
• Play the long game. Shape institutions quietly. Bury your changes deep.

That’s how they governed for so long – not by inspiring the country, but by rigging the weather.

Now, at last, the weather is changing. Brexit has backfired. Johnson imploded. Truss detonated on impact. And Farage, like a dog that’s caught up with the car, has no idea what to do next.

And Labour – quietly, surprisingly – is beginning to look like it’s learning the Tory trade. Not the cruelty (although that's a moot point). Not the nationalism. Just the method. And behind much of it is Morgan McSweeney.

McSweeney knows what Labour’s long lacked: that power isn't won through moral clarity alone. It’s won through sequencing. Choose your ground. Control the tempo. Make your enemies swing at shadows while you move the real agenda.

I’ve made this case before – that Starmer’s strategy is to concede where the press is loudest and bake in reforms where it’s quiet. So I won’t labour the point. But what happened with the Welfare Reform Bill marks a clear shift in tempo – and if it continues, it could be the start of something far more durable.

The clause on retrospective application – unlikely to pass – was left in as a sacrificial anode. It was always going to corrode under pressure. That was the point. It drew the backlash. The Labour left revolted. A few even dusted off their Twitter bios.

Then – on cue – the clause was dropped. Concession made. Unity restored.

It was the political equivalent of herding cats by throwing them a fish. The clause was the fish – dramatic, inflammatory, and already half-dead. Once it hit the floor, the cats pounced. “Victory!” they cried, tails twitching with righteous satisfaction. Meanwhile, the real reform – reshaping PIP for future claimants – slipped through the chamber almost unnoticed.

Treasury had originally pitched the full reform package as saving up to £5 billion a year. That figure’s now softened with the retrospective clause gone – but billions in savings will still accumulate, incrementally, as new claims are assessed under the updated criteria. It’s the kind of change that won’t grab headlines, but quietly shifts the fiscal balance in Labour’s favour. A public demonstration of “tough but fair” – and a private repositioning of the budget for bigger reforms to come.

That wasn’t luck. That was design. In my opinion.

It was a trial run – a dry rehearsal for governing with staying power. The kind of manoeuvre the Tories used for decades: give the public a headline, make a show of concession, embed the real change underneath.

This time, Labour did it.

That’s McSweeney’s touch: offer up the obvious, protect the essential. And if Labour keeps governing this way – calm, strategic, quietly reformist – it may yet achieve what it never has: not just a term in office, but a lasting majority that reshapes the country.

To do that, Labour needs to stay the course. 

– Keep its discipline. 

– Resist the urge to perform. 

– Think in parliaments, not polling days. 

– Use government to build resilience, not headlines.

The Tory Party once ruled by embedding its values deep into the wiring of Britain. Labour, if it’s serious, must now do the same – but in the name of housing, dignity, security, decency.

The Tory era is cracking. But something new isn’t guaranteed. Labour has begun well – even if most people haven’t noticed yet.

If McSweeney’s approach holds, this won’t be the last time Labour concedes a headline and wins a decade.

And if that’s the shape of the new era – no fireworks, no slogans, just methodical, cumulative reform – then it may be the most radical government we’ve had in half a century.

And about bloody time. However, there's no denying that democracy is dying and there's an inexorable drift to populism, with corporate feudalism hiding just around the corner.