Tuesday 28 November 2023

Difficult Choice

It strikes me that, given the Gaza ceasefire is temporary and, given the number of women and children being killed in Gaza by the bombing and missile attacks, the women and children in Israeli prisons would be better off staying exactly where they are and refusing to go back to Gaza.


They may be in jail, but they have food, medication and are not being bombed. They're even getting paid by the PLO while inside and one male prisoner did actually refuse for this reason - he'd be going back to Gaza destitute.

What's Netanyahu's end game? It can only be to remain in power to avoid the 3 corruption tials he's facing. It's the only thing that explains his actions to date. He's said Israel is in it till the end. without defining what that end is.

Assuming 1,500 Hamas operatives killed (Israel estimate 1,000 - 2,000) out of a 14,800  total, that's 8.9 civilians per Hamas operative. Given it's estimated that there are between 40-50,000 Hamas fighters, that means between 350k and 440k civilians will die if Netanyahu delivers on his promise to eliminate Hamas.

That civilian death toll, of course, will increase as Hamas attracts more fighters from among the relatives of those killed. Assuming that for every 5 civilians killed one addition is made to the Hamas number, it will not end. The end game of Netanyahu means the only people left in Gaza will be Hamas fighters.

Netanyahu will not negotiate with the PLO, as they have not condemned Hamas, so who will run Gaza when there are no people left there? The only conclusion is that it will become an extension of Israel.

Netanyahu is not really interested in Hamas' hostages, else he wouldn't be bombing the hell out of Gaza while not knowing where they're being kept and the released hostages have said as much. He has obviously been leant on by Joe Biden, who he has to keep sweet, to engage in the ceasefire. Once the hostage releases dry up, he will resume his campaign.


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