Thursday 16 November 2023

Halving Inflation Bullshit

I'd love to know what policy of Rishi Sunak has resulted in the fall in inflation.


It's not as if he can control international oil and gas prices, nor does he have control of interest rates, the latter being the traditional, blunt tool with which to tackle demand driven inflation (although this episode is not caused by consumers over-spending, but supply side problems).

Inflation always burns out at some stage, so it's a self-fulfilling prophecy that requires no action whatsoever. It's a bit like making a policy that promises that the sun will rise tomorrow and, when it rises, claiming that it's as a result of government policy.

In any case, reducing inflation has attendant laws of unintended consequences, especially when interest rate rises are used. 

Increasing interest rates (which he didn't, but the BoE did) results in investment drying up and businesses going to the wall. The rate of business failures has shot up dramatically. That also produces increases in the unemployment rate.

The housing market has suffered from increased mortgage costs with some no longer being able to afford their mortgage.

Increasing interest rates affects currency value, which adversely affects exports but helps imports.

Interest rate increases bring attendant recession dangers due to all the above. The UK has experienced no growth and it bumbling along on the edge of recession.

Rishi would be better saying that inflation will burn out and we have to grin and bear it, rather than risking being attacked on all the above if voters believe he actually had hands on the levers, which he didn't.

The key factor having reduced inflation is the fall of global energy costs - not anything that Rishi did or can do.


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