“50 private schools shut due to Labour’s VAT raid!” – shrieks the Daily Mail, clutching its pearls with such vigour you’d think Keir Starmer had personally bulldozed Eton and replaced it with a polytechnic.
It’s a juicy headline, designed to trigger a thousand coffee-fuelled rants in kitchen diners across Middle England – but as with most things Mail-related, it collapses under the weight of actual numbers.
Let’s start with that dramatic “50 closures” claim. Sounds catastrophic, doesn’t it? Like some sort of educational Rapture, where children are torn from lacrosse pitches and flung into overcrowded state schools with no Latin and suspiciously few rowing opportunities.
But here’s what the Mail doesn’t mention – because, frankly, it would ruin the fun.
Over the past five years, private school closures in England have averaged around 77 per year. That’s not a fluke – it’s the natural churn of a sector that includes a lot of tiny prep schools and specialist outfits running on tight margins. Some close. Some open. Some go under because they were teaching Mandarin to three pupils and a Labrador.
And how many closed so far in 2024? 46. That’s right – not 77, not 100, but 46. Which is actually below the long-term average.
Now, how many new private schools opened in the same period? 77. That’s not my projection – that’s from the Department for Education. So despite the Mail’s wailing, the number of independent schools in England actually rose from 2,421 to 2,456 between January 2024 and January 2025.
Yes – you read that correctly. More opened than closed. Net gain: +35.
In other words, if 50 schools closed, then at least 85 opened. But the Mail doesn’t report that, because it turns the whole “Labour’s Class War” narrative into a bit of a damp cravat.
Instead, it frames this as a direct, singular consequence of the new VAT policy – conveniently ignoring that most of these closures were down to long-standing financial fragility, shrinking demographics, or simple retirement of founders. If Labour’s VAT policy did anything, it was to give some of these already-wobbling schools a polite nudge.
And what about the supposed “exodus” of pupils? The Mail breathlessly suggests that thousands of parents are yanking their offspring from independent schools in protest, shoving them into the nearest comp and demanding to speak to the head about the lack of croquet.
The actual drop in private school enrolment? 1.9%. That’s around 11,000 pupils out of 582,000. In statistical terms, that’s a modest dip – easily attributed to demographics and fewer new joiners, not some VAT-fuelled stampede for the state sector.
But then, facts aren’t really the point, are they?
The Mail doesn’t do nuance. It doesn’t do context. What it does do – with relentless enthusiasm – is turn policy tweaks into culture war grenades. It turns perfectly normal market churn into apocalyptic proof that Labour wants to nationalise the school tuck shop and force all children to sing the Red Flag instead of hymns.
So let’s recap:
- Around 50 closures? True – but fewer than average.
- 77 openings? Also true – just not reported.
- Net increase in independent schools? Uncomfortable, so swept under the editorial rug.
- Enrolment drop? A minor 1.9%, painted as a crisis.
The real story isn’t that VAT is destroying private schools. The real story is that the private sector is proving far more resilient than the Mail would have you believe. It’s adapting, not collapsing.
But don’t expect the Mail to report that. They’re too busy loading the outrage cannon and aiming it squarely at the middle class, hoping to spark a tuition-fee uprising led by outraged parents in gilets.
Because when it comes to Daily Mail economics, reality is optional – but panic pays the bills.
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