Gym Closure

Gym goers and owners are up in arms about gyms being shut down. They complain that only 2.8% of cases are linked to gyms.

1. The Track and Trace system cannot, with any high degree of certainty, identify the exact locus of an outbreak.
2. 2.8% of cases could feasibly mean 100% spread through gym attendance if only 2.8% of the population actually go to gyms.

Now, in the UK some 7% of the population has gym membership. Not all of those who have membership actually use their gyms - the New Year's resolution that went awry and the unwanted birthday present for some husband or wife. Most gym memberships are taken out in January and half of these new members quit their membership within 6 months. In the USA, only 18% of gym members are regular attendees and I have no reason to believe it is any different here. Consequently only a very small percentage of the population attends gyms - 1.16% of the population. That has a big impact on the 2.8% of cases attributed to gyms. 

The cases attributed to supermarkets is 11.2%, and I'd estimate that the vast majority of the population goes to a supermarket at some stage during a week. I don't know anyone who attends a gym, but everyone I know visits supermarkets.

Looking at it this way, which is with the benefit of an understanding of percentages and absolute numbers, gyms are far more likely to be places where you'd catch Covid - and that's hardly surprising with sweaty, breathless bodies. Supermarkets, on the other hand, are relatively safe places in comparison from a statistical view. Supermarket attendance outstrips gym attendance by orders of magnitude.

In essence, 1,16% of the population is responsible for 2.8% of cases and upward of 95% is responsible for only 11.8%. Direct comparisons of percentages are misleading at best if absolute numbers involved are not taken into consideration.