Expendable Today, Rival Tomorrow

I have long suggested – and I make no apology for pattern recognition – that Nigel Farage’s real talent lies in getting close enough to power to shape events, but never so close that he has to shoulder the grind of governing. Build pressure, dominate the airwaves, then pivot before the Treasury tables arrive. Influence without responsibility. I have watched the cycle repeat often enough to recognise it when it comes round again.

Which makes his embrace of former Conservative Party MPs rather revealing.

These are the same Conservatives he has spent years condemning as cowards and Brexit saboteurs. Yet once they defect to Reform UK, they are rebadged as people of principle who have suddenly located their courage. It is less a conversion than a reclassification.

The opportunism is mutual. Many defectors are not seized by ideological revelation. They read the polling. They see their associations thinning. They sense the brand decay and calculate that standing still may be worse than jumping. Political survival instinct is rarely dressed up honestly.

History is not kind to them. The Social Democratic Party split from Labour with Cabinet rank and vast excitement. Most were gone at the next election. Change UK briefly filled studios and then disappeared. Under first past the post, personal reinvention rarely defeats party machinery.

Defectors have a habit of becoming footnotes. I have seen that pattern before as well.

Farage knows this. He is not naive about electoral mechanics. So welcoming them is unlikely to be an act of long-term institutional planning. In the short term they are useful. They generate headlines. They pad out Commons numbers. They wound the Conservatives. They create the impression of gathering force. They reassure donors that momentum is building.

But they are not durable parliamentary capital.

And here is the sharper edge. If some of these defectors understand the odds, if they suspect they are being used for short-term theatre, then their incentives change. An MP who believes he is on borrowed time has little reason to be cautious. In a small parliamentary party, the only serious prize is leadership.

If office is unlikely, control of the vehicle becomes the goal.

That is where pattern recognition starts to matter. Insurgent movements built around a dominant personality can look cohesive until ambition compresses inside a small caucus. Loyalty becomes transactional. Survival becomes competitive.

Farage may be using defectors as accelerants. But accelerants do not always burn in neat, predictable lines.

Westminster has seen defectors fade before. It has also seen small parties turn volatile once the spotlight grows brighter. Whether this cycle repeats exactly remains to be seen. The outlines, however, are familiar.