Thursday 27 October 2022

The Gamers' Dilemma

Thinking of Sunak's appointment of Braverman - one whom many consider a security risk - as the Home Sec.; it could be a supreme strategic move worthy of Machiavelli.


Sunak needed Braverman's support (and that of the ERG) to access the keys to No,10. The demand from the far right in return for her support was a senior position in his administration. Without it, he was lost.

His thoughts could well have been that, given her predilection for shooting herself in the foot, whether it be by doing something stupid, or promising the undeliverable (immigration has broken the back of many Home Secretaries), it won't be long before she's in trouble once more and, it's better to get that over as quickly as possible, certainly within the first year of his administration.

Braverman is adept at providing the dog-whistles necessary to get the racists foaming at the mouth, while knowing full well that she won't be able to deliver unless some thought goes into the process and legal means of access to the UK are opened nearer the cause of the problems. This, however, is not something she's prepared to countenance and which is causing the problem in the first place. Her gamble is that she can keep the dog-whistles going long enough to reach the next GE, blaming all and sundry for her failure. It will bite her in the bum, if security concerns don't get her first.

I am reasonably convinced, especially with the threat of an inquiry into her actions in regards of security breaches, Sunak could justifiably say he held his side of the bargain and any demise in her position was entirely self inflicted, leaving him with well over a year to proceed along whatever path he chooses before a General Election.

A risky strategy, agreed, as the far right could still cause trouble from the backbenches, but one worth taking and the only one available to him. The Tory Party is, after all, no longer a single, broad church, but a vipers' nest of vociferously competing factions, which it has been since the Brexit referendum and  will be its downfall.

The hidden danger, however, is that the drain of support to the Brexit Party and Reform UK would likely result, if the Tories don't lose as many seats as anticipated, of them being forced into a Coalition of the Unholy after the next GE to prevent a Labour government.

As for Sunak's first PMQs, he lied twice; once about Labour's immigration policy, by saying Labour wanted uncontrolled immigration, and again about Starmer supporting Just Stop Oil protesters, when Starmer in on record as not supporting their actions. The former lie is rather hypocritical when Tory policies have directly led to 38,000 immigrants crossing the Channel this year alone (a record), with only 4% of the backlog processed. 


No comments: