The talk of preventing a Burnham coronation is mostly Westminster theatre.
Al Carns and Darren Jones may be capable men, but Burnham has the public profile, the Makerfield win and the momentum. A contest could prevent a literal coronation. It is unlikely to prevent the practical one.
That does not make a contest pointless. Anyone about to become Prime Minister should have to explain what he intends to do about tax, Europe, defence, borrowing, immigration and the rest of the things that become awkward once the photographs outside Number 10 are over.
But there is a difference between proper scrutiny and pretending that every able politician must throw his hat into the ring simply because the hat happens to be available.
Darren Jones is one to watch. I have said before that, from the interviews I have seen, he knows his brief, is never visibly flustered and does not look as though the question has arrived from another planet. That is rarer than it ought to be.
He has also had a serious political apprenticeship. He has been MP for Bristol North West since 2017, chaired the Commons Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy Committee, served as Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury, then Chief Secretary to the Treasury, and now sits at the centre of government as Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, Chief Secretary to the Prime Minister and Minister for Intergovernmental Relations. That is a fairly formidable route through the machinery of government for someone still relatively young.
He has the look of future Chancellor material. Possibly, after that, future Prime Minister material.
But this may be the wrong contest and the wrong moment.
The next general election will not turn on who can give the tidiest answer on the medium-term fiscal forecast. It will be won or lost on whether Labour can stop Reform turning accumulated frustration into a vote for national self-harm.
Burnham is probably better placed for that immediate task. He has the profile, the political instincts and a way of talking that makes Labour sound as though it understands why people are angry, rather than merely being slightly disappointed by the volume at which they are expressing it.
Jones may be better placed for the work that follows: making the figures add up and turning industrial strategy, investment, tax reform and public capacity into something that survives contact with the Treasury, the bond market and the depressing discovery that enthusiasm is not a recognised funding stream.
That could be a very useful division of labour.
Burnham could be the political figurehead who stops Labour being swallowed by the Reform mood. Jones could be the Chancellor who ensures that Labour’s answer is not simply a more articulate version of fantasy economics.
There is a temptation in Westminster to use people up too quickly. Someone performs well in a few interviews, gets described as a rising star, and is then expected to march straight into a leadership contest before they have built enough authority, experience or public recognition to withstand the national ritual of having their life turned into a tabloid pinata.
Jones does not need to do that now.
A Burnham victory would not end his prospects. It could improve them. A serious stint at Number 11, helping to make a Burnham government work rather than merely sound hopeful, would give him the record and credibility that no hurried leadership bid can provide.
Burnham may be the man Labour needs for the election it has to win.
Jones may be the man Labour needs once the speeches are over and somebody has to make the machinery work.
No comments:
Post a Comment