Tuesday, 4 December 2018

The Effect of Percentages


Went rollerblading this morning, after a gap of 2 months following my hand injury. I thought I'd have lost my balance, but no, it was as if I'd never stopped. I settled for a couple of laps of the Tesco car park, just to satisfy myself that I still had it.

I was arguing with two Brexiteers yesterday on Facebook. I posited that the UK risking 44% of its  total exports (the percentage we send to the EU) will have a greater adverse impact on our economy than the EU risking between 8% and 18% of its total exports (what it sends to the UK, depending on how it's measured) in its economy, despite the latter being the larger, absolute amount number. This is because of the effect of percentages - this isn't even GCSE maths. They refused to believe me and suggested I was thick.

I then asked which of the following theoretical economies would be weaker; the UK having a 50% unemployment rate, or China with 10% unemployment, despite that Chinese 10% being over twice the entire population of the UK. They still refused to budge and said the Chinese economy would be weaker because of the absolute numbers - and I was still thick.


I despair of people like these; they are the epitome of the archetypal Gammon Brexiteer and it's not hard to see why are the natural targets for any falsehoods that Johnson, Farage, the Daily Mail, et al care to promulgate, not having an analytical brain cell in their bodies.

How James O'Brien maintains his cool when Brexiteers like these talk absolute bollocks to him on his phone-in show is beyond belief. It's great fun to listen to as they tie themselves in knots of cognitive dissonance when he gives them enough rope to hang themselves. I can recommend his latest book, which includes a large section on Brexit and transcripts of some of the more amusing chats.


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