Wednesday 22 December 2021

Pandemic Damage

It's certain segments of the service economy, being the economic model we in the UK have followed, which are suffering most from Covid. 

Even then, it's elements of the service economy that can't take advantage of the internet. Financial services, such as insurance, seem to be holding up quite well, but hospitality, catering and entertainment (the physical presence type), which have risen exponentially over my lifetime, are badly affected.


 When I was a kid, the only restaurants you'd find in our town were more like cafes, although there was the odd Chinese or Indian restaurant. As for pubs, the most you could expect in the form of sustenance would be a pickled onion, egg, walnut or the pub equivalent of the old British Rail ham sandwich with curly ends. Anthony Worrall-Thompson is the main culprit in respect of the Gastro-Pub, although Wikipedia says otherwise.

The worst affected of all is the airline passenger transport market - you can try flying without being present on a plane, but you won't get very far.

Manufacturing seems relatively immune, as manufactured items can still be sold on the internet and logistics chains (shortage of drivers excepted) have remained operational, yet car sales have suffered, although new cars were impacted primarily by a shortage of computer chips, not demand for cars. As a result, 2nd hand cars under 8 years old and under 50k miles have risen in price sharply.

As an aside, I've noticed of late that items advertised through the medium of Facebook - sponsored advertising - . tend to be twice the price of identical items advertised outside of Facebook. Many of them are obvious scams - they're invariably items for which the price seems unbelievable. When seeing something advertised on Facebook, I always check the price elsewhere and manage to save 50% or more.

Yes, Rushi Sunak has announced a £1bn, drop in the ocean rescue package, but it's a pity there's no financial support for the segments that are suffering most, but that's what you get in a market economy - survival of the fittest. Those who voted for this government and are in the airline sector have no reason to complain - it's what they voted for. 

There is no substantial financial support because there's no lockdown; however, the public is voting with its feet and taking sensible precautions and there might as well be a lockdown. You can hardly blame them for looking to their health, especially when government advice is to party but not party. 

Hopefully lockdowns will not be needed, but I can see Tim Martin actually praying for one so he can stem his losses through a substantial government bailout. “The typical British pub, contrary to received opinion in academia, is usually a bastion of social distancing,” he said, but who would you rather believe - a chap who depends on people going into his pubs for his living, and therefore has a vested interest in saying what he does (and welcomed the economic damage of Brexit), or a scientist who is independent and has data to support his argument that contact is the means of spreading viruses. Actually, all you need is the evidence of your own eyes and the spike following Eat Out to Help Out. After all, no-one can control a tipsy reveller and supermarkets are unable to stop unmasked people entering their stores..

If there is a lockdown, there's no-one to blame but the ones who can't obey a few simple precautions, yet they are invariably the loudest voices complaining about lockdowns.


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