Aims and Objectives

What is the purpose of our involvement in the Russia / Ukraine affair? 

We stand on the sidelines, providing defensive weapons and sanctions, cheering on Ukraine, but we don't provide Ukraine with what it really needs to win - offensive weapons and/or troops and a guaranteed security blanket.

Why is that? Why don't we really want to become involved ourselves and are quite happy to cheer from the sidelines, like kids in school surrounding a playground fight? Isn't it a bit ghoulish to merely egg the Ukrainians on in a war they're likely, in the long term, to lose, or at best likely to have to repeat ad nauseam? Do we perhaps just want to see Putin get a bloody nose, but want someone else to do it?

Say Ukrainian forces prevail this time and Russian forces withdraw from Ukraine. It's an unlikely scenario, given the situation in the east of the country, but what would happen under this assumption? Sanctions would cease and Putin would once more build up his war chest, ready for the next attempt. There would be nothing in place to stop him. He will try and try again.

Thus it will merely be a hiatus and the West will repeatedly have to supply defensive weapons to Ukraine, at great cost, repeatedly impose sanctions and assist in rebuilding a country that's ravaged by sporadic wars, one of which may be lost decisively. That's a massive drain on our economies and achieves nothing in the long run.

So, how is this ceaseless repetition to be avoided?

If we became involved, it is believed Putin would use nuclear weapons but, given he's currently losing and hasn't yet resorted to tactical nukes within Ukraine, which would give him an almost instant win, is that likely? Providing the theatre is restricted to Ukraine and doesn't involve the very existence of Russia, then it's entirely possible he won't resort to nukes. The chain of nuclear command involves a string of people and all it takes is for 1 in that string to refuse.

Russia's alleged doctrine in any case is not to use nuclear arms unless its very existence is threatened. So, don't threaten Russia itself, but ensure Ukraine wins by providing it with offensive weapons and, if necessary, boots on the ground, but limited to within the theatre of Ukraine.

Once that is achieved, the West needs to ensure a permanent win giving Ukraine NATO membership, as only that will prevent another incursion. It's a logical and pragmatic solution - there is no other way without Ukraine being a permanent, running sore.

Undoubtedly, the best result for everyone is for Putin to go and Russia to become a fully democratic nation. However, that's not likely and could only come about through Putin losing the Ukraine war permanently, which could result in his removal through internal revolution. Even that could simply result in nothing more than a change of face at the top.

The West needs to define its objectives more precisely, if indeed there are any, and develop a strategy to achieve that objective. It's not necessarily to remove Putin, but to neutralise him permanently until such time as his own people have had enough of him. Either that, or simply give up and allow him to take Ukraine in an act of unfortunate but necessary realpolitik and regroup on the borders of Ukraine, hoping an internal resistance movement has some positive effect.