Thursday, 25 August 2022

Knife Crime

Many ideologues on the right are calling for Sadiq Khan, the Mayor of London, to resign over the spiralling knife crime in London. Let's look at a few facts:


  1. Homicides in Conservative controlled (at the level of City Mayor and West Midland Mayor) far outstrip London, and Birmingham has 1/8th of the population of London. So why aren't they crying out for the resignation of the controlling mayors there? It's because they've jumped on a politicised bandwagon without thinking and are desperate to detract from the Conservatives' woes.
  2. Homicides in London are relatively unchanged, meaning one form of homicide is perhaps changing to another - guns to knives. When you think about it, the penalty for possessing a knife is less than for a gun - 4 years versus 10 years. If given the choice, surely carrying a knife has less of a consequence than carrying a gun.
  3. Unless they have prior intelligence, the police can only react to a crime, thus their metrics are based on solved crimes, not stopping crimes before they happen, especially something about which they will have no prior intelligence, such as a stabbing. Those complaining are doing so about the crimes, not the clear-up rate.
  4. While Khan may set the priorities of the Met Police, the Met Commissioner reports to the Home Secretary, and the vast majority of the budget is set by the Home Secretary - Khan has no influence over these external factors. 34% of funding is provided by the local authority, but given the pressures local authorities are under to increase social services, especially in inner cities, there's not much wiggle room. Even local council increases are influenced by the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government by the setting of a level of council tax above which a referendum is needed to enact a rise. Local council increases have been consistently higher than central government increases, the latter having remained comparatively stable over the last 5 years. Increase local authority funding further and they fall into the trap of the Conservatives accusing Labour councils being profligate. For those who believe that police on the streets stop crime, they can only blame cuts in police funding and hence numbers, not the Mayor of London.
  5. The causes of knife crime are many and varied, but drugs and the lack of a strong, male role model have an important part to play. So why aren't they blaming absent fathers. Decriminalise drugs, like they did in Portugal, and a lot of this crime would disappear, but those castigating Khan are at the forefront to wanting more and harsher drug laws, which further fuel the drug trade. There's also the fact that money for social services (clubs for kids in inner cities) has dried up due to government cuts.
  6. Many believe harsher sentences deter criminals, despite there being little evidence to support this. It's ironic that those who call for Khan's resignation are usually the ones also calling for harsher sentences, but Khan has no say over sentencing - that's the remit of the government.
So, the very things those on the right hold up as the solution to knife crime - more police and harsher sentences - are the remit of this government, not the Mayor. Many things that can help divert teens from crime are being defunded by government cuts. The absence of a positive role model is a societal problem and beyond the control of anyone.

The annoying thing is that when crime statistics are good, central government will claim the plaudits, but when crime statistics are poor, they will blame anyone but central government. 


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