A Question to ChatGPT

Me: "Given the increasing complexity, interdependence and technologisation of society, how likely is complete societal collapse?"

ChatGPT: "It is difficult to predict the likelihood of a complete societal collapse because it depends on numerous factors and their interactions, many of which are difficult to foresee. However, it is important to note that history has shown that societal collapses can occur, and they often have multiple causes, including environmental degradation, resource depletion, economic and political instability, and conflicts. 

 "In modern society, the increasing complexity and interdependence of systems, as well as the rapid pace of technological change, may make us more vulnerable to a collapse. For example, a major disruption to the global financial system or a large-scale cyberattack could have cascading effects across multiple systems, leading to societal breakdown. Climate change also presents a significant risk, as it could lead to widespread environmental degradation, food and water shortages, and other social and economic disruptions. 

"However, it is important to note that societal collapse is not inevitable. Many societies have faced challenges and adapted successfully, and there are ongoing efforts to build more resilient systems and address global risks. It is essential to prioritize sustainable development, resource management, and cooperation to mitigate the risks of collapse and ensure a stable and equitable future for all."

I would suggest that rather than it being possible, it's inevitable in some degree. Just-in-time being a prime example of where things can go squonk in a very short time.

Better gear me and my family up for self-sustainability and anti-fragility, as Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls it.

Living in the countryside we're at a natural advantage, as there are plenty of fields we can raid for vegetables. Cattle, sheep and chicken stocks may necessitate a bit of a battle, so we'll need shotguns and the common outside our house will have to be fenced off and guarded. Perhaps not just a shotgun, but a complete armoury or a Leopard tank or two, manned by the local Neighbourhood Watch,

We have solar thermal and solar PV, thus we'll have some electricity with which to perform essential activities. Obviously, I will have to conduct a commando raid on the KwikFit up the road for some batteries, and the lighting system will have to be converted to 12v.

The log burner will come into its own, but I will need a bicycle trailer with which to forage wooded areas for logs and fell the odd tree.

I think I may change the current log burner into one that's also a cooking range, with the addition of glass doors, such as the one in the image below.

I'm actually thinking of getting one of these anyway, as they're not expensive - just over £1k. Very versatile too, as most solid fuel ranges lack glass doors and you can't see the state of the fire, nor the condition of what you're cooking.

However, log burners are only 20% efficient at best. A biomass boiler, which controls the combustion process, can be up to 90% efficient, but the problem is getting one that's aesthetic in a domestic environment - most of them look decidedly industrial and are rather expensive. This one doesn't look too bad, but doesn't have an integral cooker and is £4k.

This one, however, is an Italian, biomass cooking range, although I don't know the price yet. It's only 8.3kW, as compared to my 12.3kW log fire.

There is also a 20kW version, with a back boiler, but we have no room for a back boiler where our log burner is sited, so that would be a waste.

I am unable to get more information as the last UK dealer has closed and, while there are dealers all over the world, there are none now in the UK. I wonder what could have caused that!

Biomass boilers use wood pellets as their fuel source and these typically cost around £150 – £200 per tonne. When you consider that a typical home will probably use around 11 tonnes of fuel per year then that's around £2,000 a year - but that's a full year assuming all you have is a biomass boiler, whereas I have solar PV and solar thermal for hot water in summer, which would reduce the amount of pellets to between 3 and 5 tonnes. 

Logs are currently about £140 a tonne, delivered, so bearing in mind the increased efficiency of pellets, they're much cheaper per kW than logs, but you need a large capital investment for the biomass boiler.

Water wouldn't be an issue since we excavated the 11m x 7m pond, which is self-cleaning by virtue of the reeds planted at the edges. There's also a well on the property. We can get a good stock of chlorine tablets from Chipping Sodbury Caravans, which is just up the road.

Hay, being a biochemist, would be able to cater for most medical needs, although she might have to bone up on foraging for healing herbs and a set of surgical instruments.

I'd also need to get a 40kW Nissan Leaf, which would take 20 hours to charge on the 2kW coming from the solar PV, but given I'm only generating 2kW for about 3 or 4 hours on a sunny day, it would take many days; however, at least I'd have the ability to travel around 150 miles for free. For shorter journeys there's always the e-bikes.

How the hell would I get chocolate though? Some form of barter economy would have to develop and we'd need to guard against the feudal nobility attempting to re-establish their ancient hegemony.