Flattening the Curve of Panic

So, lock-down it is.

Some things I've been ruminating on:

1. There's talk of flattening the curve of infection so that the NHS can cope with demand. However, flattening and spreading the curve over a longer period may not impact overall deaths. What's important is the total area under each curve, and many of the curves I've seen promulgated have approximately the same total areas. Now these curves may be purely illustrative, rather than based on modelled numbers - but it makes you think. Common sense dictates that there will be lower mortality if the NHS is not overwhelmed, but I want to see curves based on data, not illustrative ones which simply confuse people and can lead to false assumptions.
2. The NHS' ability to respond will itself be compromised by NHS staff contracting the virus. The line on the various forecast graphs showing the upper limit of NHS capability appears to be straight, which does not take reality into account, and NHS staff are one of the most vulnerable groups.
3. One factor not being considered is the number of lives being saved through the dramatic reduction in pollution. Some 28,000 to 36,000 people die prematurely in the UK per annum through long-term exposure to pollution. Obviously not all of these will be saved by a short-term respite, but some will. The same goes for RTAs.
4. It seems supermarkets are now, what with social distancing being imperative, allowing fewer shoppers into them simultaneously. This, on its own, will create long queues outside them, giving the false impression that panic buying is taking place, fuelling actual panic buying.
5. As restaurants weren't seeming to have problems with food deliveries to them, one wonders whether, in the instance of long queues at supermarkets, whether from panic buying or restrictions on numbers of simultaneous shoppers, such restaurants could be dragooned into functioning as shops for remoter areas with reduced access to supermarkets?
6. Why on earth hasn't trading on the London stock exchange been suspended? No-one should be allowed to speculatively profit from this situation.

Nostalgic comparisons are being made by the older generation with WWII, rationing and how much better everyone behaved, but it's not generally known (or acknowledged by that generation) that crime increased dramatically during rationing and a thriving black market ensued. Not everyone pulled together and many were complicit.

The Chairman's share tip of the day is Neutragena, or rather their parent, Johnson and Johnson. If your knuckles are red-raw, like mine from obsessive hand washing, skin creams are the next thing that will be panic bought. That said, coconut oil is cheap as chips and I've found it to be most efficacious at making my knuckles look less like parchment. Not only that, but it chicken breasts taste delicious when fried in coconut oil.

Boris' body language coach has a tough job, if last night's stilted and unconvincing performance is anything to go by.