Blood in the Streets

There is not a shred of evidence that Brexit will be good for the UK - not a single, credible economic forecast gives an uptick. 

The much-vaunted Japan trade deal is, on current estimates, no better for the UK than what we would have gained under the EU-Japan deal; the Japan deal actually puts greater restrictions on state aid than the EU is asking for, which undermines the UK's position with Brussels; an American deal is unlikely if Boris impacts the GFA negatively in any way. 

At the very best, Brexit is a hope that's supported by nothing more than vapourware coming from those pushing for it and who stand to make a killing from the fallout of economic mayhem.

It's an indisputable fact that seismic shifts in an economy produce opportunities to make a bundle for those with a bit of dosh stashed away. Ask yourself why it is predominantly older people who support Brexit - they are the demographic with the least debt and, very likely, a wedge sat in the bank earning zero interest.

Yes, there is a group of people with a penchant for totalitarianism who would be happy to be forced into living in a cave, providing it meant not seeing coloured faces or having to come into contact with people for whom English is not their first language; however, they are a small and rather sad minority. The powers that are pushing for Brexit, such as Farage and the billionaire press barons, however, are harnessing the ignorance and gullibility of this vociferous minority for their own gain.

In general, the business leaders vigorously pushing for Brexit are those who own their businesses and are ruthless in their business ethics - they don't give a toss about the consequences of their actions, providing they make money. CEOs of companies with fiduciary and legal responsibilities to their shareholders are vastly against Brexit. Very rich people simply don't want their tax havens eliminated.

When all is said and done, you can't blame people for wanting to make some money; having cash in the bank means that I will probably do well from Brexit if I make some wise investments. The key difference though is that I'm not pushing for making money on the back of the misery of others. If the economy is going to crash, as it surely will, the best I and others like me can do is to invest my spare cash in order to ensure a quicker recovery by my cash providing employment somewhere in the economy.

Will Brexit, once and if we have recovered, produce a more resilient Britain? The jury is out but, if you're rebuilding something, it generally results in an improvement in efficiency - providing your chassis is solid and you have a design in mind - but a Utopian fantasy is highly unlikely when you have a inept government that that continually undermines objective truth and has turned lying into an artform. Past governments' attempts at laying the foundations for a new industrial revolution proved pitifully inept and resulted in numerous, costly white elephants; Concorde, Blue Streak, Hinkley Point, etc.

What is highly probable is that equality, which is already low (see chart below from 2017), will take a nosedive and we will become a much more unfair society - the plutocrats will rule the roost and will be looking after their own, ethical-free interests. 

Polarisation of politics is a symptom of an unfair society and Brexit, with its consequence of increased inequality, is laying the foundation for further, lethal polarisation and possible societal unrest - even the potential for revolution. We reap what we sow.

I take great delight at perusing the Daily Express' headlines, which exist in an alternate reality where every disaster for Boris is a national triumph and every statement from Barnier is manipulated and mangled into a huge success for Brexit. What you can put money on is that every so-called triumph reported in the Express is reported very differently in all reputable newspapers and news outlets. Objective reality and the Daily Express are mutually incompatible. 

Bloomberg, on which I put a lot more credibility on financial matters than the Daily Express, or any Brexit supporting organ, is reporting that the Bank of England is considering experimenting with negative interest rates post Brexit to lure institutions away from keeping cash in the bank and making it work to stimulate the economy as a hedge against deflation. The consensus among economists is that this strategy can easily backfire with the consequences of greater unemployment and lower overall economic activity. 

I wouldn't be surprised to find that people smugglers will discover a nice trade in smuggling Brits to the continent once Boris and his cronies have had their way with the country. It will be one way of using up the excess inflatables we've garnered.