Conundrums

In response to the systemic increase in costs involved with the EU deal, Brexiteers seem to think Britain's salvation lies in the fact that 'there's a big world out there' to do deals with. I don't think they realise that having deals with 'the big world out there' is exactly the strategy the EU is following with its Free Trade Agreements, but it already has a huge head start. So where's the advantage, especially when the EU has a market of 600m (now 540m) and the UK is a tenth of that?

They also seem fixated on Britain joining the Asian CPTPP, which is the 3rd largest trading bloc, leading to salvation, unaware of the relationship between distance and trade. There's nothing intrinsically wrong with joining CPTPP, but the gravity model posits that trade between countries increases in proportion to their combined economic mass, and decreases in proportion to the geographical distance and other barriers separating them. The typical estimate implies that a doubling of distance between countries cuts the volume of trade by nearly half. Thus there's no way a CPTPP deal could replace an EU deal without an increase in the volume of trade that's physically impossible and thus it's not salvation they portray it to be.

Of course, that's just Project Fear, rather than evidence-based statistics based on years of observation.

Brexiteers continually suggest that Scottish Independence would not be possible for Scotland as it's a net recipient of money from England and economically dependent. Well, if that's the case, then surely they should embrace Scottish Independence with open arms, as it would relieve England of a costly burden - but, inexplicably, they don't and are conformed Unionists. This is another example of where the intellectual consistency of the Brexit movement falls flat on its face. Scottish Independence has the same driver as Brexit, but with the singular exception of the desire to re-join the EU, rather than stay in a parochial and self-harming region that is losing its way and influence under the leadership of a Chumocracy.

Never underestimate the power of denial and seeing the world in black or white; friends or enemies; winners or losers. That's what drives Trump and Trumpism - complexity and nuance are totally absent as they require thought and the admittance and admission of possible negative consequences. It's much easier to divide the world into two distinct camps on the basis of ideology than to embrace nuance. 

I was having an argument with a Brexiteer on the Express news website (an oxymoron, if ever there was one - it's a propaganda rag worthy of Goebbels), who maintained that, as he's retired, Brexit won't affect him. However, I pointed out, politely, that he's not immune to price increases and the potential for his pension pot to go up in smoke if the economy does. He finally admitted he voted Brexit, in part, to annoy people like me. That says a lot more about him than words could ever do - it's Trumpism writ large; a virus that doesn't balk at killing its host because of its programming.