Sunday 17 January 2021

Vaccine Dilemma

The government now has a genuine dilemma with vaccinations. There are two aims:

  1. To protect the elderly, who are at most risk of dying from Covid, or
  2. Keeping hospitals functioning so we still have an effective health service, thereby preventing needless deaths from treatable conditions.
There is a 3rd, which is to keep the economy ticking over, but that seems to be playing a reduced role in the current wave and is antithetical to the prime two aims above and not something they're playing up/



Now, when you think about it, these two objectives are diametrically opposed with regard to a vaccination strategy. The elderly need to be vaccinated first to prevent them dying, but it's the young who are spreading the virus most and therefore threatening the HNS with being overwhelmed, added to which, every time the virus replicates, the chance of a mutation increases. Which do you vaccinate first?

It appears that vaccination of the elderly has won, but that could still be the wrong strategy, as some scientists have argued. You're damned if you do and you're damned if you don't. I guess it depends on the models.

The restrictions on movement and the wearing of masks are designed to assist in helping out the NHS AND preventing the elderly contracting Covid, but there seem to be many more people moving in public and working than in the first wave. The irony is that if restrictions and mask wearing were being strictly adhered to, then vaccinating the elderly would certainly be the right strategy. The problem is a small and vocal minority.

Scottish church ministers are getting into a tizzy about their churches being closed and are asking for a judicial review. They maintain there's no evidence of Covid spreading in churches, but how can that be determined when incubation takes 2 to 3 days after infection? What's incontrovertible is that Covid spreads where people congregate, and what's the collective noun for a bunch of people in a church? Surprise, surprise - it's a CONGREGATION. Additionally, such congregations generally contain a high proportion of elderly people who know each other and will therefore be more inclined to chat in close proximity - the average age of churchgoers is 61, compared to 40.5 in the general population.


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