Wednesday, 8 September 2021

Dunning-Kruger Driving

The Dunning-Kruger effect is 'a cognitive bias whereby people with limited knowledge or competence in a given intellectual or social domain greatly overestimate their own knowledge or competence in that domain relative to objective criteria or to the performance of their peers or of people in general', and it affects a lot of us in one or other area of our lives.


Take the following example: say it becomes scientifically proven that autonomous vehicles are safer than cars driven by people. Which would you prefer - to drive yourself or be driven in an autonomous vehicle controlled by AI?

According to polls, the vast majority would would choose to drive themselves, precisely because they overestimate their ability to drive. If an autonomous vehicle has an accident, it's something out of your control, whereas when you're driving you feel more in control, but you're more at risk of an accident. Many people don't make a logical assessment of the risk, but go on gut feel and the belief they're brilliant drivers. Strangely enough, they'd even feel safer being driven by someone they don't even know.

It's probably an explanation as to why many people believe WTO is the preferred Brexit option - in fact it's the reason for any form of Brexit. Also why some believe their own Facebook research trounces science in respect of masks and vaccines.


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