Where Are the People?

Job levels are reported to be back to pre-pandemic levels and yet there's a record number of vacancies - over a million, to be precise - so many that they can't be filled. 

So, if you consider the above, the Covid effect has been eliminated from the equation by virtue of the opening statement and the million vacancies can only be due to Brexit and departing EU workers not returning. The catering industry alone is short of 92,000 workers.

The government response is that, rather than recruiting from abroad (which would be an admission that Brexit hasn't panned out as planned - not that there was any plan in the first place), they suggest businesses should be paying higher wages, which will obviously result in higher prices and not the lower prices Brexiteers promised. Fault me on my logic, if you can.

A corollary of paying higher wages while there is a shortage of staff is that those able to afford it will be enticing staff away from those who can't afford it, with a consequent flow of staff away from lower paid establishments. Nothing will be solved and the smaller operators will go to the wall. Pay higher wages and you can't, 5 years down the line, reduce them again - the higher wages will become the new baseline below which you simply cannot go, and thus systemic.

Paying decent wages is not a bad thing in itself, but it must be recognised that the cheaper prices promised by Brexiteers as a result of Brexit was a myth.

Another solution proposed by the government is for employers to invest in training - but where are these people to come from that need to be trained; there simply aren't enough people to fill the available jobs, let alone be trained. Added to the foregoing, training places in those industries most affected, such as catering colleges, are full to capacity.

All the above combined will result in lower tax returns and less government spending. 1m divided by the 32m of the working population means a 3.13% tax drop, on average, with the government having less to spend.

Again, fault the logic.

Now, there is a whole bunch of workers on furlough, who are included in the employed figures, but many will stand no chance of remaining employed when furlough ends. These currently furloughed employees facing redundancy may therefore add to the unemployed, freeing up some of the population for the job vacancies - if qualified. There again, a good proportion of these may have already filled other jobs (facilitating the high employment figures), which was their right under the terms of furlough. Throwing this into the mix complicates the issue, but I can't see it improving it any.