It's the Shortage, Stupid!

We had a driver shortage before we left the EU, as did the EU, yet deliveries were not massively affected, either in the UK or the EU. The only change now is that we've left the EU and a lot of EU drivers have left the UK, greatly adding to our problems, but alleviating, albeit marginally, the European shortage. 

For the UK it's the straw that broke the camel's back and Christmas is under threat. While there are delivery problems within the EU, the fact it's an area in which there's Freedom of Movement, drivers are easily able to move from areas of oversupply to areas of undersupply, and thus the problem is manageable and the irony is that those EU HGV drivers leaving the UK can find jobs anywhere across the EU.

Many UK-based EU citizens, who applied for Settled Status and may have stayed, have been trying to get their applications approved for 18 months, but with little success due to bureaucratic delays and lack of processing staff. They are now leaving in disgust.

To say this is not caused by Brexit is pure propaganda. It's a lack of planning that's directly attributable to Brexit and a government that had no plan beyond taking back control, without understanding what that meant.

In response, the government is offering EU drivers temporary visas but, given the shortage in the EU, there will be plenty of permanent positions available in the EU and EU drivers are highly unlikely to accept a temporary offer from the UK, unless they're given a year or two's salary for a 3 month stint till Christmas Eve. Then there's the irony of a Brexit government asking foreign drivers to come over here and take our jobs...

The other strand of the government response is to facilitate longer hours for drivers, or making the training shorter, which risks accidents. It is, however, the only real option that's open to them.

UK HGV drivers, in the meantime, are obeying the laws of supply and demand, and gravitating to the highest paid positions as trucking companies compete for drivers. Those companies who can't pay the massively inflated prices (which will drive inflation) will go to the wall through lack of drivers - and that will probably end up being essential council services, such as bin collection, buses, etc.

There is no shortage of fuel in the UK but there are problems getting the fuel to some forecourts - because of the bloody driver shortage and panic buying. This could feasibly get worse if drivers' pay is not matched to the inflated wages being offered and consequently drives churn within the industry. Prices for everything will rise.

Panic buying, while frowned upon, is a natural human reaction and to be expected. Some would say that not ensuring you have a supply of fuel, which is critical to getting to work, is short sighted and, therefore, panic buying is a logical strategy. 

Clear government communication is essential, but this government is not noted for either clear communication, or truth. They are a victim of their own inability to tell the truth and can't be trusted, on anything, even when it actually is the truth. 

Given we have supermarket shortages, it's only logical to assume the problem will extend beyond supermarkets and hence the merest hint of forecourt shortages at a handful of forecourts leads one to take preventative action by ensuring one has a full tank. It's worth noting that not every HGV driver has a licence to drive a fuel tanker, but every tanker driver can drive an ordinary HGV. Army HGV drivers will drive whatever they're told to drive but, if HGV drivers are underpaid, surely Army HGV drivers are too - they earn only £22,3k p.a. Will we see a push for comparative pay for Army HGV drivers?

The petrol companies are apparently focusing on motorway service station deliveries, but who in their right mind, except for lorry drivers, fuels their cars at motorway service stations with the exorbitant prices they charge?

Some accuse the media, especially the BBC, of irresponsible reporting as the cause of the panic buying, but it's the responsibility of the news media to report news honestly and truthfully, although some within the print media publish little but propaganda in support of the indefensible. Those who defend the indefensible love nothing better than to throw stones at the BBC, precisely because it doesn't support their propaganda agenda.

In these times of uncertainty, it's a logical and rational strategy to secure your supply lines of critical goods. It's not stupid, but it could be construed as selfish by those not being able to put two and two together and join the dots. The lesson is to keep your fuel tank no less than three quarters full and to get a good supply of bog rolls, pasta and KFC.

Panic buying will, however, result in profiteering, so get in early, or corner the market and become a free marketeer.