The Negotiation Window

Ukraine is becoming a problem and Zelensky is going to have to face up to some difficult decisions, before it's too late.

• It would seem Ukraine's ascendancy is now under threat and Putin is focusing on the eastern area of Ukraine on his borders.
• The West is supporting Ukraine with weapons, but not boots on the ground, and quite understandably not. 
• The West is also supporting Ukraine with sanctions (primarily oil) but, as the oil tapers off it becomes more expensive, so Russia is, arguably, still getting the same revenues as pre-sanctions.
• The cost of weapons and the effects of sanctions are hitting the West too, and it's a drain that can't be sustained indefinitely, as we're facing our own problems. Unity is already wavering and will waver more as winter approaches.

A stage is going to be reached when the desire by the West to see Putin kicked in the teeth is outweighed by the cost of supporting Ukraine - and Ukraine-fatigue will set in. We're talking realpolitik here, versus idealism - it's others who are dying to satisfy our prurient desires.

Zelensky can only negotiate successfully from a position of strength, and that position of strength has already, arguably, passed as Russia regroups and is starting to have successes in the east.

Should Ukraine cede parts of the country, parts that would be a running sore for decades to come if retained, rather than risking losing the entire country? Russia is much better resourced in the long term and therefore better positioned in a war of attrition. If Western aid falters, then Zelensky and Ukraine are done for. Western involvement, particularly in the area of sanctions, is totally dependent on the support of the electorate and will last only as long as the sanctions don't hurt them too much. Putin doesn't need the support of his electorate, which he merely a passive drones to manipulate to his advantage.

The possible fall of Putin will not result in Russia suddenly being admitted to the ranks of liberal democracies - corruption is firmly entrenched and another hard man would simply replace him. 

The window for negotiation and salvaging something from this is fast closing, if it hasn't already shut. Even if a peace is agreed, the West will have to shoulder the cost of rebuilding Ukraine - Russia certainly won't.

As I've said since the start of this conflict, the long-term objective has to be articulated and strategy formulated around that, taking into consideration pragmatic realities and timescales. The objective cannot possibly be the permanent expulsion of Russian forces from the eastern areas - Ukraine-fatigue will set in well before that could feasibly happen, and even then it would not be a permanent cessation of hostilities.

Ceding eastern areas, well populated by Ukrainian nationalists, would create a poisoned chalice for Russia; retaining eastern areas, well populated by secessionists, would be a poisoned chalice for Ukraine. That's just simple fact.

It's entirely understandable that the Ukrainian government wants the complete expulsion of Russian forces, but is that possible and, if so, would it lead to a cessation of hostilities? Think of Eire and Northern Ireland on the island of Ireland. Who has had the greater problems in Northern Ireland - Eire or the UK? Learn from history, which has a tendency to repeat itself.

I totally accept that talk of ceding parts of Ukraine to Russia will be seen as defeastism and appeasement to Ukrainians and, indeed, many in the West. I would see it that way if I were a Ukrainian. However, it's just facing up to a fast approaching necessity. Additionally, ceding part of Ukraine to secure peace would allow Greater Ukraine to then join NATO, which is impossible in the present circumstances. That's a massive strategic gain ensuring permanent protection for Greater Ukraine. Putin may not want that, but if he wants the separatist areas, that's the price he will have to pay.

The best analogy I can come up with is having your arm or leg amputated to save the rest of your body and then having the remaining body covered in armour.

It's a mistake to think that public support, once achieved, is unwavering. As soon as a policy decision hurts the voter, attitudes to that once universally-acclaimed policy will and do change. The public is fickle in the face of personal loss.

Most of us alive today lived through the Cold War. Another Cold War with a fascist, totalitarian Russia, rather than communist, totalitarian Russia, is nothing new.