Brexit Strategy

Starmer is coming under fire from some quarters about his Brexit stance. However, these critics are simply too impatient and lacking in understanding of  the necessary steps - we can't just cancel Leave and expect to be where we were pre 2016.

Yes, Brexit has been a disaster for the UK, and continues to be so, but a vast swathe of the electorate is still firmly wedded to it, regardless of the pain it inflicts on the country. When you think about it, for the average person, Brexit has made little difference to their daily lives, except if they've had cause to travel outside of the UK. The full effects will take a long time to be felt, and there has to be no doubt in minds that Brexit is the cause, rather than the myriad other possible causes that Brexiteers desperately hang on to, such as Covid or Russia's incursions into Ukraine.

The road to re-joining the EU is long and tortuous and I can't see it happening until after the Conservatives are out of office and not even in the Parliament after that - it will be some time in the 2030s. There are sequential steps to be followed and they can't be circumvented. There are also numerous obstacles.

The UK has to focus on fixing its current problems first, which are more pressing - we cannot join the EU while flat on our backs and supplicants. We must bring something positive to the table to help persuade the member countries that we are worth the effort, the most important of which is international standing and reputation for sticking to agreements. The NI Protocol, for example, is actually benefiting NI, so best left alone.

Even then, the EU is highly unlikely to want to admit a country that remains destabilised and divided on the issue of the EU. They would want to see a referendum demonstrating at least a 60% support for re-joining and the likes of Farage relegated to permanent obscurity. They will not want a repeat of 2016 every decade or so. A supermajority may even be a requirement.

Then there's the small matter of joining the EU necessitating adoption of the Euro, which could be a huge stumbling block, as well as possibly having to join the Schengen area, losing all opt-outs and the rebate. These are issues which could further destabilise the Re-join vote.

Lastly, Boris (if he survives) still has enough support to galvanise the waverers in any General Election, so Starmer cannot afford to hand him a victory on a plate while the causes of the UK's woes are still up for debate and he insists on twisting the facts.

Starmer is playing the long game, and correctly so, no matter how much it frustrates the hard-line Remainers. It's called strategy - softly, softly catchee monkey. Do not doubt Starmer's conviction, nor his strategy.