Sunday, 15 October 2017

That Old Canard


It's becoming self-evident that, despite the Brexiteers' demonstrably false cries that they need us more than we need them, the EU will not give the UK special status; the broad, sunlit uplands of Utopia are a myth. This was known before the referendum, as giving the UK concessions would provide the green light for other EU members to demand similar treatment and herald the demise of the project. Ukip, however, in an act of national hubris, refused to listen to reason - people with irrational, dogmatic prejudices don't like being challenged by facts.


Now the call is for a hard Brexit - which is exactly what was predicted, and the start of the decline of the UK to a position of near irrelevance on the fringe of Europe, with declining productivity, rising inflation and a debt mountain larger than before the global financial crisis.
  • We will reclaim our national waters, only to be barred from fishing in the rest of the EU's waters and having up to 24% tariffs imposed on fish exports to the EU - our larges fish export market.
  • German car makers will not come to our rescue, as they don't want to see the UK becoming a back-door for cheap imports from the rest of the world and threatening the emerging markets of eastern Europe.
  • Japanese car makers will be subsidised to stay in the UK to the tune of their entire wage bill.
  • Logistics supply chains reliant on input from Europe will be thrown into disarray.
  • Air transport, be it passenger or cargo (according to IATA) will suffer a severe downturn due to policies not being in place and many routes will be closed.
  • We will lose all current Free Trade Agreements under the EU, and as a nation of 65m compared to the EU's 600m, we will fall to the back of the queue in future FTA negotiations.
  • Being a nation of only 65m, we will not get better deals than were negotiated under the EU - in fact, logic dictates we'll get worse ones as we're a smaller market.
  • Tariffs, combined with the additional friction and beaurocracy necessitated by customs procedures, will raise the cost of both imports and exports, adding to inflationary pressures and a loss of competitiveness on exports.
  • We will lose the Euro clearing business to Germany or France, along with 83,000 jobs and €930 billion of trades per day.
  • Economists have estimated the loss to the economy would be between 4% and 9.5% of GDP - between 12 and 29 times the cost of membership.
That's not to say there won't be winners, which is why they're heard arguing their narrow viewpoints, but they're only interested in their companies, not the UK in general. The CEOs of such companies have a fiduciary duty to their shareholders, not UK Plc.

Our only hope now is that Mrs May is using Fabian tactics with the Brexiteer's and delaying the break till such time as it becomes obvious to even the most hardened Brexiteer than this is pure folly, and calls for a 2nd referendum. My fear, though, is that the dogmatists who hate Europe with a passion and are dishonest about their reasons, just won't listen.

Polls, however, are encouraging and there is a gradual and growing swing to remaining. There will be cries of; "The will of the people should not be thwarted," but what if the will of the people changes? If a defendant is found guilty and subsequently evidence is uncovered that he or she is innocent, does justice demand that the original sentence stands? As David Davies said in 2012; "If a democracy cannot change its mind, it ceases to be a democracy." Democracy is a process, not a binary event.

The only people who Brexit will definitely benefit as a group are the speculators, who thrive on uncertainty. Lots of Conservative MPs have links to the City and some, indeed, own wealth management funds. It's hardly surprising they're Brexit fanatics. Parliament, for the unscrupulous, is a route to untold wealth.


6 comments:

  1. I hear your comments and agree with them and I think that a second referendum would yield a much higher vote in favour of staying. What I can't understand is why the pm and here party dont see this as the only sensible option for us. It is unlikely that the EU would let us stay on the terms that we have currently.

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  2. Roger - I think they do see that; the electorate is very unforgiving. She has to wait for the right moment. It's all a case of timing,

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    1. Do you believe that time will come and that she will take advantage of it?

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    2. I do - else why has it taken all this time. The bigots, of course, will not be convinced, but I believe we still have enough sensible people left to sway the outcome.

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  3. It's complete madness and needs to be stopped right now, but unfortunately I don't see any leader with enough character, intelligence or balls to make the u-turn.

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  4. Maybe the people have to speak....

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