Business Disruption at Christmas

I heard something a couple of days ago that's concerning for businesses, yet obvious - when you think about it.

Insurance is predicated on two basic principles:

1. The rarity of the event being insured against, and
2. The event happening to only a small percentage of those insured.

Most think it's simply insurance against a rare event, but the number of people affected by that event at the same time means the insurance contract is null and void. That's why Acts of God are excluded, because they tend to affect everyone.

Assume 10 people are insured against an event. Should one of the insured suffer that event, then the premiums from the other 9 people pay out to the 10th person suffering from the event. It's basically a mutual pact.

Now transpose that to a national lockdown - it affects virtually everyone, which only a few exceptions and certainly not enough to cover the payout for the rest. I don't envy anyone trying to take out insurance against business disruption through a pandemic.

Talking of disruption, it seems there's a spree of Christmas pudding panic buying. Hay's dad has been stockpiling them for years - we all overestimate the amount of Christmas pud we can consume at Christmas, and he is one of the biggest overestimators, resulting in some vintage puds that were layed down years ago. He could make a fortune selling them.

I think a lot of people are looking forward with glee to a Christmas where they can spend the entire period at home and not have to face the annual pilgimage to the homes of in-laws they detest for the inevitable family argument...