Mask Weather

I have a slight problem with Boris' new mask 'recommendation' for schools.

Masks are undoubtedly effective at preventing the spread of Covid and even a slight efficacy is multiplied by the laws governing a small effect on an exponentially rising cohort (take the number 1 and double it, and keep going; 1 becomes 2, then 4, etc; after 10 doubles, you get 512 and after 10 more doubles, you get 262144. Now instead of doubling, multiply by 1.9 instead of 2 - a tiny reduction in growth rate; after 20 cycles, the total is only 104127); however, they're mainly effective under the right circumstances - in well ventilated spaces with a low people to cubic space ratio.

Now supermarkets are generally spacious areas in terms of the volume of space and the number of people. They also have ventilation as they're relatively new buildings. I've yet to hear of a school that has ventilation, other than windows (they're mainly old buildings) and, while throwing the windows open in our current weather may not be a problem, it is when the temperatures nosedive, which they will within the next couple of days as kids go back to school. Have you ever tried to work in a cold room? Getting them to an adequate temperature with the windows open ain't going to do their heating bills any good either, what with the energy prices what they are.

OK, the government has promised to provide 7,000 space ventilation units, but at one per classroom and 20,000 schools, that's hardly scratching the surface of the problem. If their plan all along has been for kids to go back to school, regardless (and as it seems), then why weren't a sufficient number ordered ages ago?

However, if kids' education isn't going to suffer, what other solution is there? In the longer term, and bearing in mind there will be another pandemic at some time in the future, perhaps we should build more resilient schools in order to lower pupil densities but, the advice to overcome staff absences is to actually double up classes. Reducing class sizes also has a positive effect on educational outcomes. Perhaps we'll hear Boris announcing 40 new schools this year as a start - just like his 40 Schrodinger's hospitals.

I keep hearing about talking heads with no scientific background going on about how kids don't like to wear masks and they harm their mental health. Kids don't like being told what to do at the best of times, to eat their vegetables or to be in at a certain time - they'll have to learn to live with it, which is a popular phrase. A mask is a piece of cloth, not a landmine. School holidays result in a spike in child abuse, but no-one suggests we cancel them because of that. 

There's too much emphasis on the possible harm of things that benefit us, with little to no evidence backing it up, and not enough on the benefits, which far outweigh possible harms (remember being part of the EU?). However, the media never misses a chance for a sensationalist headline, especially when it's inexplicably supports the government.

The airborne nature of SARS-CoV-2, now acknowledged by WHO, is a game-changer - both generally and in relation to masks specifically. Generally, we need to avoid close contact (airborne spread occurs mostly within 2m), prolonged time indoors, and crowds.

Given ministers' track record on pronouncements, I have no faith whatsoever in their assessment that nothing in the data currently warrants further curbs on the spread of infection, especially when hospitals in Lincolnshire are already declaring critical incidents due to staff absences. They continue to argue that the best course of action in the face of empirical uncertainty is to do nothing, and we've seen where that leads, repeatedly.

Don’t think about the virus as what it is today but what it might become. The virus has a very large space of possible options. Omicron has 60 mutations, another combination of 60 mutations will result in very different properties. If we don’t want more possibilities there is one sure way that will prevent it: reducing the amount of virus that is transmitting. We are doing the opposite so far - there is more virus not less. Will Omicron mutate? Well, we're already more than half way through the Greek alphabet, and each variant came from one of the previous strains - that should tell you all you need to know.

Talking of the weather. I don't know where the media gets its forecasts from, but we've been threatened by blankets of snow, blizzards and hurricane gusts for over a week now, yet it's the mildest start to a year in 100 years and there are only light winds in the south.

I think it's perhaps time they ditched the bloke with the pinecone on a string and Mystic Meg as their forecasters and went to a more reliable source. All these false flags allegedly come from the Met Office, but even they have contradicted some of the media stories. 

Take yesterday, for example. The local rag was predicting 30mph winds and traffic disruption, but both the BBC (MeteoGroup) and the Met Office were saying winds of no more than 15mph. Must have been a slow news day.