Thoughts on the Israeli - Palestinian Conflict

While there were tensions before 1948 due to duplicitous British colonial promises concerning competing nationalist claims by Jews and Arabs, the establishment of the State of Israel in 1948 was a key trigger for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. 

Before the build up to and creation of Israel there was no Israeli-Palestinian conflict because, logically, Israel did not even exist. The state was established primarily by Jewish immigrants from Europe, who were mainly Polish, German, and Russian nationals, in what many consider to be an act of ethno-colonialism. That's simply established fact and not a matter of opinion.

This event led to the first Arab-Israeli war, the displacement of many Palestinians, and set the stage for ongoing territorial and nationalistic disputes. 

Claiming that European Jews had historical and cultural ties to Palestine is akin to saying that people from Yorkshire have cultural and historical ties to Scandinavia due to ancient Viking settlements. However, this does not justify people from Yorkshire forcibly taking land from Scandinavians. 

Similarly, historical ties do not justify the displacement of the indigenous Palestinian population during the establishment of the State of Israel in 1948 due to historical ties that aren't even as recent as links between Yorkshire and Scandinavia.

However, Israel exists and we are where we are; Australia, new Zealand, Canada, the USA and numerous South American countries exist through the same process of colonisation at the expense of the indigenous population, yet no-one now contests their right to exist.

According to reports from the Times of Israel, Democracy Now, The Defense Post, and the Hindustan Times, senior Israeli military officials have indicated that the ratio of civilians to Hamas fighters killed by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) is approximately 2:1. 

Given past instances where the IDF has been criticized for downplaying civilian casualties—such as in the 2014 Gaza conflict where external investigations reported higher civilian casualties than IDF's figures—this ratio might be understated. 

Despite setbacks in manpower and resources, various reports, including a 2023 study by the International Crisis Group, indicate a rise in popular support and continued recruitment efforts for Hamas. This suggests that the group's influence has not diminished and may even be increasing as a reaction to the ongoing conflict. The strategy of targeting Hamas fighters at the expense of civilian lives appears counterproductive and acts as a recruiting sergeant for Hamas.

Historical precedents, such as the increase in militant group support observed after the 2006 Lebanon War, support the idea that civilian casualties bolster support for Hamas among the Palestinian population, as noted in a 2022 report by the influential RAND Corporation. 

The killing of civilians frequently leads to heightened resentment and anger against the attacking forces. For instance, a study published in the Journal of Conflict Resolution in 2021 found that civilian casualties in conflict zones often lead to increased recruitment and support for militant groups, a pattern observed in various conflicts around the world. 

Minimizing civilian casualties requires a multifaceted approach involving advanced technology, precise intelligence, strict rules of engagement, and effective communication with local populations. Training on international laws and robust accountability mechanisms also play crucial roles in ensuring adherence to these principles. The combined use of these strategies has proven effective in various conflicts around the world. Examples include: 

• Operation Unified Protector (Libya, 2011) 
• Operation Inherent Resolve (Against ISIS, 2014-2019) 
• The Battle of Marawi (Philippines, 2017) 
• The Sri Lankan Civil War (Final Phase, 2009)

The objective has to be to win hearts and minds and for Israel to act as liberators of Palestinians from Hamas oppression, not to consider Palestinian civilians as necessary casualties in efforts to target Hamas.