Tory Crossroads

The Tory Party, not the country, is at a crossroads. It's suffering an identity crisis and doesn't know whether it wants to be the constitutional, centrist party of the One Nation Tories, or a post-truth populist party. The post-truth element is currently in charge, but the populace has seen through the mist.

The constitutional, centrist, One Nation party is worth cherishing and saving - in fact it's a necessity in order to have a balance in the Force and to regain trust in politics. Without trust in politics, we're in a death spiral.

The longevity of post-truth populist parties in government can vary significantly based on several factors, including the political environment, the country's institutions, and the actions of the populist leaders themselves. However, there are some general observations that can be made.

Post-truth populist parties often experience a rapid rise to power due to their appeal to widespread discontent and their ability to mobilise voters through emotive and simplistic narratives. 

Their often anti-establishment rhetoric can clash with the realities of governance, leading to difficulties in managing the complexities of the state and delivering on promises. 

Populist parties may struggle to implement sustainable economic and social policies. Their focus on short-term gains and populist measures can lead to economic instability and disillusionment among their supporters. 

In many countries, strong institutions (such as an independent judiciary, free press, and robust civil society) can provide checks and balances that limit the ability of populist leaders to maintain power. 

Over time, the initial unity and enthusiasm that brought a populist party to power can fragment. Internal divisions, scandals, and political opposition can erode their support base. 

If populist leaders fail to deliver on their promises or if their policies lead to negative consequences, they can quickly lose the support of the electorate. This erosion of support can lead to electoral defeats or forced resignations. 

However, there are notable exceptions where post-truth populist parties or leaders have maintained power for extended periods. For instance, Viktor Orbán in Hungary and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in Turkey have managed to sustain their positions by consolidating power, undermining democratic institutions, and maintaining strong personal followings. 

The key is the tension between loyalty and effectiveness. Intensely loyal MPs are rarely effective and effective MPs are usually not that loyal. The Tory Party currently prioritises loyalty but, in order to function, it requires some highly effective people in key positions. Gove is highly effective, according to those who have worked for him, yet his loyalty is constantly suspect. Effective people in the current incarnation of the Tory Party are a rarity. There's also a small number of people, who are in ministerial positions, who are neither effective nor loyal - and that's the problem.

In summary, while post-truth populist parties may face significant challenges that can limit their time in government, the specific context and actions of these parties can result in varying outcomes. In some cases, they may be short-lived, while in others, they can entrench themselves in power for longer periods.