Friday, 13 April 2018

Syrian Crisis

Pundits are questioning why Assad should, when he's winning his war, want to use chemical weapons on the Syrian rebels. Putin supports Assad for no other reason than the fact the millions of displaced refugees pose a threat to the EU, which he is desperate to destabilise due to it being a threat to his particular form of Russian democracy, which is an oligarchical dictatorship or a dysfunctional, federal democracy at best

To this end, Putin supports far-right groups within the EU and stimulates opposition to a refugee crisis he himself has helped to create.

If there's cui bono argument, the beneficiary is Putin, by creating a climate of fear which will result in yet more refugees knocking on the door of the EU. Assad obviously benefits by having vast areas cleared of rebels and potential rebels as they flee to Europe.

That said, the West needs to be very cautious. It's iniquitous that Russia, indeed any of the 5 Powers, have a veto at the UN and can block an investigation. The UN needs to change if it's to have any credibility.

Sabre rattling solves very little and Trump seems to have climbed down on his knee-jerk rhetoric, which makes him look weak - better not to leave yourself exposed to looking weak in the first place by keeping your counsel.

The West needs to isolate Russia using means other than war - war is the continuation of politics by other means, as Clausewitz said - war is the last resort when all else fails.

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