Wednesday, 30 May 2018

Predicting Italian Elections


Today, the 30th of May, on the basis of the average for the last 3 years, should result in a very low chance of generating much solar energy.


If you look at the above chart of my average 3 year solar generation, you'll see a blip in the blue line, just before the half way mark - that's the level of confidence. It coincides with a dip in the red, solar generation line. It's a totally fatuous predictive chart anyway, as the red line will smooth out as more data is added over the years. Not only that, but the paucity of, and continued decline in, high confidence points shows it's useless for predictive purposes. We'll see what happens today, but the forecast is looking to remain firm, at least for 2018.

Talking of predictions, Italian politics can be described as a circus at the best of times, but the current kerfuffle seems somewhat strange - an alliance between left wing and right wing populist parties. I wonder what the 5 Star and Lega voters themselves think about the alliance? While both parties are united in the populist axis, their left and right wing positions on the political axis does not bode well for united decisions on many areas of policy. I can foresee another election producing some unexpected shifts in the voting pattern and perhaps a migration to the centre as an expression of dissatisfaction the leaderships and their alliance with the enemy in the pursuit of power.

Talking further about predictions, I can predict that, following a hard day of shopping at Lidl for tools and inspecting all the local charity shops on my part, Hayley will not don a nice cocktail dress for my return home, having chilled the Martinis and having a chicken chasseur ready in the oven...


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