Russian Disintegration

It seems that Putin has made a grave mistake. Not the glaringly obvious one of a total lack of tactics or strategy in regard to his 'invasion' of Ukraine, but the fact he's had to appoint deeply corrupt people into positions of power as governors of the regions of the Russian Federation.

These oligarchs are increasingly having troops devolved to them, who openly say their prime allegiance is to their regional boss, not the Kremlin. Putin has turned the country into a quasi-feudal state, raising what could be very powerful warlords in areas well away from direct Kremlin control.

You have the Chechen chap, who is clearly mad as a hatter, along with the Wagner Group of mercenaries, as the two prime examples. They are becoming increasingly disillusioned with Putin and, I'm sure, see the opportunity to carve out princely states owing allegiance to no-one but themselves, especially as the Army proper has proven itself to be a paper tiger.

As the Ukraine War continues with stalemate after stalemate, they will see Putin's authority waning, leaving them as the prime threat to the centre. The powerful, regional barons of feudal Britain could make or break kings - and did, several times. Similarly, the greatest threats to the Roman Empire came from generals who commanded the regions and got above their stations.

What the West needs to prepare for is how this increasingly likely scenario of Russian Balkanisation is going to be handled.