Tuesday, 4 April 2023

We're on the Same Side - of Ash

Update on the ash slab first - gap down to zero. I've flipped it over to destress the slab from the other side and have piled more sandbags on the corners, along with half a dozen breeze blocks. I came up with the idea of sinking some bolts into the garage floor corresponding to the slab corners and using them to screw the slab to the level floor incrementally, using a thick wooden brace at each end of the slab to hold it down evenly, if you get my meaning. That' however, will be the last resort if the weights don't work.

To the main subject. 

It's strange, but everyone, surely, is mainly on the same side in wanting what's best for the country as a whole. Yes, some will always want what's best for themselves, even if it's bad for the country. Some are prepared to sacrifice what's best for themselves for the sake of the greater good.

What I can't understand is people still maintaining that Brexit is good for the country when it has demonstrably been shown that it's not. It's not good for the country, nor is it good for themselves. Not happy with the current form of Brexit, they even want to inflict more damage on the country by wanting an even harder Brexit.

Undoubtedly, many in the business of financial speculation see an opportunity for themselves and don't give a fig for the country (the more you tend to earn, the more greedy you become, until an inflection point is hit and you become a philanthropist), but that cannot be so lower down in the pecking order.

CPTPP is a point in case - it has been estimated by the government's own trade forecast body that it will improve GDP by 0.08%. It will increase exports by £1.7 billon and imports by £1.6 billion. They are miniscule compared with the UK's £559 billion trade with the EU in 2021, and the Brexit losses estimated at around £100 billion a year.


Brexiteers argue that the analysis is very old. I ask them what's changed - and then tell them.

The UK already has bilateral agreements in place with seven members: Canada, Chile, Japan, Mexico, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam. It has also signed deals with Australia and New Zealand, which are yet to come into effect. So, the gain will be even less than the original analysis.

The main losers will be our farmers, at a time when we need food security. The disadvantages come from 3 sources - increased competition, lower food standards and waning subsidies. The central plank of the EU was a level playing field; this will not exist under CPTPP.

However, to listen to the government, which habitually lies to us, and the commentariat supporters in the popular, right wing press comments sections, you'd think all our trade problems are now over. They want to persuade us that trading with nations on the other side of the globe will replace trade with our nearest neighbours, magically overcoming the gravity model rule of thumb that states, based on observed reality, that trade halves when you double the distance.

What many don't even think about is providing support for your manufactured goods on the other side of the world. It's all very good selling commodities, such as foodstuffs, in far away places, but complex, technological products need local support. How many people are put off buying tech products from the other side of the globe because of a lack of adequate, local support? A lot, and it's not easy to set up local support if you're only just entering a new market, unless you have very deep pockets. Even then, your generic product may be made there anyway, and a customer there has the option between your product with a high transportation cost, versus the local product without that transport cost.

I remember buying a Bosch fridge freezer in the 90s, believing it to be the best on the market - until it went wrong and needed a new compressor. Not having a UK service network in the UK at the time, one had to be sent from Germany with a 2 week delay, which ain't good for your frozen food. I swore to never again buy products that didn't have local support, unless they were cheap as chips anyway.

It cannot possibly be economics that's driving their Brexityness, but psychology. They're more than prepared to cut off their noses to spite their faces. Is it possible that they're doubling down because they simply cannot admit to having been taken in by the lies? Is it such a visceral hatred of anything European that's urging them to say black is white with such foam-flecked vehemence? Are they simply gaslit?


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