Gaza / Israel

I used to work for an Israeli company, being their MD for Europe, and have visited Israel many times; however, I try not to allow that to cloud my opinions of the conflict, despite having made many friends there.

Some important points:

1. Agreed and inviolable borders engender friendships (a version of high fences make good neighbours).
2. Friendship itself can encourage porous borders (good neighbours have open doors).
3. Imposed borders breed conflict (compulsory purchase orders cause strife).
4. Religion knows no borders.

The cause of the current flare up goes back many decades and each side engages in tit-for-tat, with no end in sight. It's easy to nail one's colours to the mast for one side or the other, but each side has engaged in some pretty atrocious behaviour.

The above maps show how Israel has expanded by taking over Palestinian land. It could be said, however, that the land was needed to prevent strategically vulnerable corridors. There again, Israel was created by the West, without so much as a by your leave to the original inhabitants of the Ottoman Empire - imposed borders; indeed, an imposed country.

Collective guilt about historic antisemitism results in the West generally favouring Israel, plus the fact that Israel is one of the few functioning democracies in the Middle East. Democracy is worshipped in the West, despite it being increasingly under threat from populists. Hamas being sponsored by Iran is another factor in Israel's favour in the eyes of the West. There again, Hamas is viewed by many Palestinians much like the IRA was viewed by the Irish Catholics - one man's terrorist is another's freedom fighter.

Netanyahu seems to be getting it in the neck for the egregious lapse in security. It seems populists are shit at the every-day important stuff, as we and the Americans have learned - and many other countries that are lurching toward populism will discover.

Fully expect Russia to exploit the situation, especially as Putin obtains weapons from Iran, Hamas' key backer. But Putin has to be careful as there are over 900,000 Jews of Russian heritage in Israel, if not actually born there and part of the Aliyah of the 90s. A Middle East conflict that draws in the West and deflects from Ukraine would suit Putin perfectly. It would also benefit certain leaders in the West, as wars have a habit of ensuring re-election.