Wednesday 17 January 2024

Climate Denialism

 Let's start with indisputable facts:


  • CO2 is a greenhouse gas. The basic physics of how greenhouse gases work is well understood. CO2, because of the molecule's physical shape (it's a linear molecule) and size in relation to the wavelength of a band of infrared, absorbs and re-emits infrared radiation, which is the primary type of heat radiation emitted by Earth. This trapping of heat is what contributes to the greenhouse effect and ultimately warms the planet. To deny this is akin to denying the fact of gravity. Remember, scientific understanding is based on evidence and consensus, not individual opinions.
  • The Earth is warming at a rate that's unprecedented in at least the last 2,000 years. This is not just a matter of opinion, but a well-established fact supported by overwhelming scientific evidence comprising temperature records, ice cores, fossilised pollen, etc.
  • For every year that passes, the atmospheric concentration of CO2 is getting roughly 0.6% higher, and this rate is increasing. In the early 1960s, the annual CO2 increase was around 0.7 ppm. By the 1990s, it had risen to about 1.5 ppm per year. In the 2010s, it averaged around 2.3 ppm per year. As of 2023, the average annual increase is 2.48 ppm. That's simply counting.
  • It is indisputable that this increase in CO2 will lead, through the greenhouse effect, to an increase in warming. Simple cause and effect derived from the previous facts.
If you deny any of the above points, you are denying the laws of physics and you're not worth talking to. You're a flat-Earther.

Where dispute can arise it the source of all this additional CO2. However, as a species, we are pumping increasing amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere while simultaneously cutting down rainforests that absorb CO2. We all rely on fossil fuels for our power needs and to travel away from home.

Global CO2 Emissions per Capita in 1900 were approximately 1.4 tonnes CO2 per person. By  2020 this increased to 4.5 tonnes CO2 per person This represents an increase of around 221% over the past 120 years per person; however, the global population has more than quadrupled since 1900, growing from 1.65 billion people in 1900 to over 8 billion in 2023. This translates to a staggering 306% increase over the past 123 years. This is a significant increase, driven by a number of factors, including: 

  • There are simply more people emitting CO2 at higher levels throughout the economic consumption chain. 
  • Increased economic activity: As the global economy has grown, so has the demand for energy. This has led to increased burning of fossil fuels. 
  • Changes in lifestyle: People in many parts of the world have become wealthier and have adopted lifestyles that are more energy-intensive, such as owning cars and flying.
70% of human-caused CO2 comes from burning fossil fuels. Within this category, coal-fired power plants are responsible for some 20%

Deforestation and land use changes account for roughly 25% of human-caused CO2.

The level of volcano activity, both above and below sea level, has remained relatively steady during this period, so the cause of the CO2 increase cannot be attributed to volcanic activity. Nor can it be attributed to sun spot activity - there simply is no correlation of any statistical relevance.

The confidence level of anthropogenic CO2 being the prime cause of Global Warming is extremely high. Ignoring this evidence would be akin to ignoring established scientific facts in other fields, like medicine or engineering.

It is a mistake to levy the blame on individual countries that produce the most CO2, as per-country CO2 is a number that's inextricably tied to the size of the country. China, for example, is a huge country. A more equitable and accurate measure is CO2 per person, where smaller, but highly industrialised countries are the main culprit.

Some have convinced themselves that GW is a sham because they are trapped and too comfortable in their flabby, selfish, lazy, consumerist daily life and therefore unprepared to make any sacrifice that involves a slight change to their habits that will benefit those who come after them.


1 comment:

David Boffey said...

Also, all extant avian and terrestrial species evolved when CO2 was around 200 ppm.
Ever heard of Roy Spencer, professor at the University of Alabama and NASA scientist? “Believe it or not, very little research has ever been funded to search for natural mechanisms of warming…it has simply been assumed that global warming is manmade.” Which is a blatant lie, as he well knows. Why does he lie? This is why : “Earth and its ecosystems—created by God’s intelligent design and infinite power and sustained by His faithful providence—are robust, resilient, self-regulating, and self-correcting” And who, together with Tim Ball and John Christy, tries to make science fit his faith and believes environmentalism is “one of the greatest threats to society and the church today.”